Azerbaijan: Is Baku Offering a Natural Gas Carrot to Moscow for Help with Karabakh?

While interest from the United States and the European Union in resolving the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and establishing a corridor for gas from Central Asia to Europe may goad Moscow's interests in brokering a conflict resolution, the terms may prove unpalatable for both Armenia and Azerbaijan, Mirkadirov said.

"Moscow wants a resolution under its full control -- in other words, with its peacekeepers in the conflict zone -- while Azerbaijan and even Armenia are not ready for that," he said.

Former presidential foreign police aide Vafa Guluzade also believes that the chances for progress are slim. Without clarity on the ultimate question -- Karabakh's final status - statements by Aliyev, Medvedev and others "are just diplomatic words," Guluzade argued.

Nonetheless, those "words" show little sign of slacking off.

In an April 17 interview with the Voice of America, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza stated that Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan are now examining "painful compromises" that have to be made before a breakthrough can occur. Nonetheless, Bryza, a noted optimist in the Karabakh peace process, believes that a "real" breakthrough is possible in the coming weeks.

In an April 20 interview published by the Trend news agency, the presidential administration's Mammadov stated that if Armenia "defines its position" at an expected May 7 meeting in Prague between Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, "a decision will be adopted."

Mammadov called on Moscow, which will be hosting an official visit by Sargsyan in late April, to "fulfill its historic mission" to resolve the 21-year conflict.

According to Bryza, a special meeting of the US, French and Russian presidents on the Karabakh issue is possible this summer.