Armenia: Is President Sargsyan's Amnesty Offer Politics or PR?

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's recent announcement that he is prepared to consider a prisoner amnesty has fueled debate about his motivations. Some Armenians believe it is a tactical maneuver designed to influence the outcome of Yerevan's May 31 City Council elections. Opposition politicians, meanwhile, suggest the president is trying to burnish Armenia's international human rights record.

In his May 28 statement, Sargsyan asked political parties and the Public Council, a 36-member advisory body, to submit suggestions about what form an amnesty should take. "I am ready to use my constitutional right if the idea of granting new amnesties has taken hold in society," Sargsyan declared during a visit to Sardarapat battlefield, where Armenian forces defeated Ottoman Turkey in 1918.

Opinion pollsters are not allowed to release surveys in the week preceding the vote, but some analysts see the election as a critical showdown between the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosian's Armenian National Congress (ANC). The City Council vote offers voters their first opportunity to express their political preferences since the highly contentious and ultimately violent 2008 presidential election. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The council vote is also the first that will determine who will be the capital's mayor. Previously the mayor was a presidential appointee. In this election, the party that controls more than 40 percent of the seats will see its candidate named as mayor.

"The major competition will again evolve between the opposition -- the ANC -- and the authorities, the RPA," said independent political analyst Yerevand Bozoian. Another analyst, Andranik Tevanian, head of the PolitEconomy research center, seconded that view, though predicts fresh support for the Prosperous Armenia Party, a member of Armenia's governing coalition, and the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun, which recently left the coalition over the government's talks with Turkey. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Republican Party of Armenia representatives deny that the president's statement was a "campaign trick." Sargsyan's amnesty offer "is an expression of his goodwill and has no connection with getting votes," commented Republican Party spokesperson Eduard Sharmazanov.

For now, analysts are refraining from predicting how either the opposition or the RPA might benefit from a potential amnesty. One senior Ter-Petrosian supporter believes that Sargsyan is now talking amnesty as a sop to the international community; in particular, to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), which has twice considered applying sanctions against Armenia in the wake of the March 2008 crackdown on opposition protesters that led to the death of 10 people and the imprisonment of scores of opposition activists. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

PACE will again examine Armenia's reform progress on June 5, five days after the Yerevan council vote. "It's somewhat unclear what the authorities will exactly get in the upcoming elections by saying those words, but, obviously, Serzh Sargsyan is trying to please the PACE to gain more time," commented opposition activist Suren Sureniants.

International observer missions, including 15 observers from the Council of Europe's Congress of Regional and Local authorities, have stated that they will closely monitor the Yerevan vote. They have expressed a clear expectation that the conduct of the citywide election should mark a considerable improvement over the handling of the 2008 presidential vote. [For background see the Eurasia insight archive].

Appeals for an amnesty have been repeatedly made by international organizations -- the latest coming in an April 30 PACE report. Until now, however, Sargsyan has dodged questions about his intentions to grant an amnesty. On April 10, for example, he said during a news conference: "We'll see when the time comes."

Analyst Bozoian believes that Sargsyan has now declared himself open to the idea because he senses opposition support is waning. Attendance at recent opposition rallies has fallen off considerably from earlier gatherings. "I have the impression that the opposition is becoming weaker and the authorities do not feel them to be that dangerous anymore, so they will gradually release people, and will grant an amnesty," Bozoian said.