Georgia: Contemplating War-and-Peace on a Make-Believe Isle

Given the vitriolic exchanges between Tbilisi and Moscow at the outset, the conclusion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's military exercises in Georgia was somewhat of an anti-climax.

The May 6-June 3 NATO exercises concluded with a simulation of how the world would respond to a conflict between the fictitious countries of Emerald and Onyx on make-believe Jewelry Island. NATO trainers maintain the scenario had no association with Georgia's 2008 war with Russia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Georgian Defense Ministry representatives did not respond to written questions about the exercises' significance for Georgia in time for publication. Georgian Defense Minister Davit Sikharulidze is currently on a trip to Washington, DC.

Influential Russian political scientist Alexander Dugin, a reported confidante of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, had already delivered one interpretation from Moscow, however. Emboldened by NATO's backing, Georgia may now attempt to bring breakaway South Ossetia and Abkhazia back into its fold, Dugin told RTVi television in a recent interview. In response, Dugin advised, Moscow should pick up where it left off last year, and "wipe [the Georgian government] off the face of earth."

Dmitri Rogozin, Russia's NATO envoy, recently adopted a more moderate stance compared with earlier Kremlin warnings that the maneuvers would undermine "European stability" and fire up "tensions within Georgia itself."

The alliance has moved from "the spirit of confrontation and has begun to fulfill joint decisions about a 'restart' of relations" with Russia, the Interfax news agency quoted Rogozin as saying on May 27. He did not elaborate. That change of tone may be linked to US President Barack Obama's upcoming July visit to Moscow.

If Russian hardliners had been counting on a show of force during Georgia's controversial NATO exercises, they ended up being disappointed. No tanks or heavy artillery were on display during field maneuvers at the Vaziani army base outside of Tbilisi. Instead, the battle between Emerald and Onyx over Jewelry Island took place -- at least, in part -- on computer screens.

Tornike Sharashenidze, the director of Georgia's Information Center on NATO, believes that Russia is using its warnings and commentaries as a bargaining chip with the West. "These are empty threats, something that Russia uses not to be constructive in matters such as extension of the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe] mission in Georgia," Sharashenidze said. The OSCE mission may shut down its operations in Georgia after Russia vetoed a renewal of its 16-year-long mandate in December.

The rector of Georgia's Diplomatic Academy agrees. "Perhaps Russian generals would love to teach Georgia another lesson, but President Medvedev knows that Russia can't afford -- neither politically nor economically -- another armed conflict in the Caucasus," said Soso Tsintsadze.

Such a clash would not only "be detrimental for Russia's image and position in the context of the upcoming [US President Barack] Obama-Medvedev talks," but would make investors skittish about putting money into Russia's preparations for the 2014 Winter Olympics in the Russian Black Sea resort town of Sochi, Tsintsadze added.

(Moscow announced on June 2 that it would not finance construction in Sochi during 2009-2010, leaving private companies to pick up the slack, RIA-Novosti reported.)

For now, commented the NATO Information Center's Sharashenidze, Moscow can rest content with its gains. The presence of Russian troops in the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia has effectively caused Georgia's quest for NATO membership to stall, he said.

"All other obstacles aside, NATO will not accept Georgia while there are Russian forces on its territory," Sharashenidze said. "Either Georgia has to admit to losing the territories or Russia has to withdraw its troops. None of these is going to happen anytime soon."

Tsintsadze is less pessimistic. "NATO has sent a very clear message, which is that despite Russian threats, despite the August war, despite Georgia's domestic turmoil, despite change in the US administration, NATO has long-term strategic interests in Georgia," he said.

NATO trainers told EurasiaNet that they had seen no impact on participating troops from an attempted May 5 tank battalion mutiny at a base not far from the site of the NATO exercises. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

But within NATO itself, some member-states and officials appear to sense more acutely how Georgia's neighbor Azerbaijan meets such interests. In a recent interview with EurasiaNet, one senior source within the NATO Joint Command stated that Azerbaijan could now enter the alliance before Georgia or Ukraine. [For details, see the related Eurasia Insight story].

In June 3 testimony before the US Congress, the nominee for the posts of NATO Supreme Allied Commander and commander of US forces in Europe, Adm. James G. Stavridis, exhibited a measured take on NATO's relations with Georgia. "Based on the political decisions in the North Atlantic Council, the NATO military will have a supporting role in advancing defense reforms in Georgia and developing interoperability," Stavridis said. The admiral added that he supports the "current, prudent policy to focus our security cooperation with Georgia on fundamental intellectual issues like training, doctrine and personnel management."