Tehran, 2009, now has the feel of Madrid, 1936. A large segment of Iranian society feels under siege. This mood forged a coalition of disparate forces to resist what many see as an attempt by incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to establish an authoritarian-repressive regime. One could almost hear echoes of the Spanish Republican side's rallying cry -- No Pasaran, or They Shall Not Pass -- during recent rallies for Ahmadinejad's main presidential challenger, Mir Hussein Mousavi.
Whether the pro-Mousavi coalition possesses the strength to block Ahmadinejad's power grab will soon become apparent. As Iranians went to the polls on June 12 to cast ballots for the next president, partisan passion threatened to stoke violent confrontation, especially if Mousavi supporters believe the results are rigged. Some experts in Tehran suggested that there is a very real possibility that the voting could touch off a political confrontation.
Election officials described turnout as unprecedentedly large and authorized the extension of voting by two hours or more in some locations. A massive turnout was widely expected to favor Mousavi, but anti-Ahmadinejad forces expressed widespread concern that the incumbent was intent on stealing the election.
Mousavi and other prominent presidential foes went out of their way on Election Day to stoke a frenzy of vigilance against fraud. "The election should be conducted in such a way that the people should see the outcome exactly in accordance with the votes they cast," said Ahmadinejad's arch-foe, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president himself.
Meanwhile, Mousavi pledged that his campaign team would keep a close eye on the ballot-counting process. "We demand the election executives keep the votes safe," he said.
Anecdotal eyewitness evidence in Tehran indicated that Ahmadinejad's allies were indeed attempting to carry out systematic fraud. Among the reports coming in from pro-Mousavi observers was that polling precinct workers, who are predominantly loyal to the presidential administration, were engaging in irregularities.
In the 48-hour period leading up to Election Day, Mousavi, Rafsanjani and others mounted a furious lobbying effort with the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to guarantee a fair vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
For much of the presidential campaign, Ayatollah Khamenei appeared to be a staunch backer of Ahmadinejad. But the day before the vote, there were signs that the Supreme Leader might be wavering. Late on June 11, Rafsanjani held a three-hour meeting with the Supreme Leader. When he emerged from the talks, Rafsanjani sounded an upbeat note, indicating that Ayatollah Khamenei might take action to ensure a free-and-fair election. "This meeting has been one of my more constructive meetings with the leader of the Islamic Revolution," the Ayandeh news agency quoted Rafsanjani as saying.
But early on Election Day, a statement released by the Supreme Leader's office and broadcast on state television muddied the waters by suggesting that Ayatollah Khamenei would not intervene as Rafsanjani wished.
"The Office of the Supreme Leader denies reports according to which during their meeting His Excellency had come to some sort of agreement with Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani," the statement said.
In another indicator suggesting that the fix is still in for Ahmadinejad, a reliable security source told EurasiaNet that plans for a massive crackdown following the announcement of the final voting results have been prepared.
In all, four candidates are vying for the presidency, and one needs to gain more than 50 percent of the ballots cast to be declared a winner. If none of the four can muster a majority on June 12, a run-off will be held on June 19. Many analysts said a run-off between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad appeared likely. That would most likely raise the temperature in Iran's already overheated political environment.
The campaign succeeded in polarizing Iranian society in a startlingly short period of time. State workers and the pious, rural poor have lined up behind Ahmadinejad, while the middle class and members of the urban educated elite have rallied around Mousavi's green banner. Mousavi's campaign has also been able to mobilize two long-dormant, but potentially powerful constituencies -- women and young people. The fervent support expressed for Mousavi's candidacy has fueled concerns that his supporters would respond forcefully to any attempt to rig the vote.
Ahmadinejad during the last weeks of the campaign seemed both arrogant and defiant. In trying to deflect charges that he intended to steal the election, he accused his enemies of resorting to Gestapo tactics. "Such insults and accusations against the government are a return to Hitler's methods, to repeat lies and accusations," the semi-official Fars news agency, which has close ties to the Revolutionary Guards, quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.
The president's critics, meanwhile, suggest that a vote cast for Ahmadinejad this June will mean never having to vote again.
