Hard-line backers of Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are doubling down on their bet that repression can break popular opposition to his power grab. The storm of protest in Iran over the suspicious presidential election results showed no signs of abating, however.
On June 16, the protest movement that is seeking to overturn the doctored results of the June 12 presidential vote received a crucial endorsement from Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri, a religious figure whose prestige rivals, if not exceeds, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's. In a fatwa, or religious edict, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri came out forcefully in support of the right to protest the election results. He indicated that the president and his backers had abused the public trust "in the worst way possible," according to an unofficial translation. The grand ayatollah also said that "no one in their right mind" could believe the vote tally produced by the Interior Ministry.
The grand ayatollah went on to castigate security forces for attacking "the children of the people with astonishing violence," and for "attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and academics." The fatwa concluded by outlining four points that could very well spell the end of the Ahmadinejad regime: it ordered the government to "take all measures to restore the public's confidence" and sanctioned continued peaceful protests. In its most important provision, the fatwa ordered security forces not to get involved in quelling the protests.
"I ask the police and army personnel not to 'sell their religion,' and beware that receiving orders [to engage in violence] will not excuse them before God," the unofficial translation of the fatwa read.
Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's entry into the political dispute provides critical heft and confidence to Ahmadinejad critics. It also exposes a deep rift in the country's religious hierarchy -- a split that can only cause severe damage to the authority of both Ahmadinejad and the supreme leader. The Grand Ayatollah's pronouncement banning the involvement of security forces in the unfolding confrontation could deprive hardliners of perhaps the only instrument that could rescue them from their precarious situation.
Ayatollah Khamenei appeared to be in full damage-control mode when he appeared on state television late on June 16. His comments indicated that he now fears that the forces unleashed by the attempted vote-rigging threaten to sweep away the Islamic Revolution. The supreme leader called for national unity and asked for partisans on both sides of the issue to express renewed support for the theocratic system instituted in 1979. It was not immediately clear how opposition supporters would respond to Khamenei's appeal. During the election process, the supreme leader has come to be closely associated with Ahmadinejad's attempt to create what amounts to a dictatorship in Tehran. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
As news of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's fatwa started to spread, hardliners appeared to grow more desperate. The primary targets of hardliner repression on June 16 were university students and foreign journalists. According to various accounts provided by students, state security forces and pro-Ahmadinejad Basij Militia members have swept across university campuses in Tehran and elsewhere, making arrests and terrorizing dorm residents.
The first attacks on students occurred on June 13, the day after the disputed election. Five students reportedly died in an attack in Tehran the next day. A Persian-language website, Balatarin, also reported that seven students died in violence at the university in the southern city of Shiraz.
On June 16, university students in Tehran, spreading information via the micro-blogging service Twitter, reported that security forces were making fresh sweeps of dormitories. Students reported that in addition to causing bodily harm, security forces ransacked dorm rooms. The ISNA news agency carried a report quoting Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani as saying those responsible for carrying out the university attacks that resulted in loss of life should be brought to justice. "The Interior Ministry is responsible for this and should answer for it," the ISNA report quoted Larijani as saying.
In addition to student arrests, Iranian state television announced that an unspecified number of "agents" of post-election unrest had been taken into custody. In addition, two high-profile reformist politicians, Mohamamd Ali Abtahi and Saeed Hajarian, were reportedly detained. Both men served as advisers to former president Mohammad Khatami.
Hardliners also moved to muzzle the foreign press corps. Reporters who had entered Iran on temporary work visas were ordered to leave, according to local reports. Those with long-term accreditation from the Iranian government were banned from covering street protests. The ban was also applied to Iranians working for foreign news organizations. Accredited foreign journalists were told that they would be confined to their news bureaus, where they would be able to gather information mainly from state-controlled television. Foreign news outlets were also prohibited from transmitting images of street protests outside the country.
In further efforts to choke off the flow of information, the government appears to have intensified efforts to block access to the Internet and to impede cellular phone traffic.
While wielding a heavy stick, hardliners also offered a carrot. An unelected institution with close ties to the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, early on June 16 announced that a partial recount of the controversial June 12 election would take place.
Supporters of aggrieved presidential challenger Mir Hussein Mousavi reportedly dismissed the Guardian Council's move as insufficient. The Mousavi camp is reportedly insisting on a full re-run of the election, with guarantees in place for a transparent ballot-counting process.
Despite the government's efforts to ratchet up the repression, the number of protesters may be growing. On June 15, hundreds of thousands of people turned out for a pro-Mousavi rally in and around Tehran's Freedom Square. On June 16, an even larger crowd, according to some reports that could not be independently verified due to the government-imposed restrictions, came together to protest the Ahmadinejad administration's actions. At least seven people died in protest-related violence on June 15. There were no immediate reports that security forces used deadly force against the pro-Mousavi demonstrators on June 16.
The June 16 rally drew a massive crowd despite a plea from the movement's nominal leader, Mousavi, not to gather, due to fears that security forces would provoke mass violence.
Meanwhile, a smaller crowd turned out June 16 to support Ahmadinejad, and by extension the Supreme Leader. Ahmadinejad did not attend the gathering. Instead, partially in an effort to project an image that he remains in firm control of the machinery of state, he traveled to Yekaterinburg, Russia, on June 16 to attend the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. He received a warm welcome from his Russian hosts, who described the fraud allegations surrounding the vote as Iran's "internal affair" -- Kremlin-speak for approval of a crooked election and repression.
