Azerbaijan: Monitoring Iranian Events for Political Lessons

Political leaders in Azerbaijan are paying careful attention to the turmoil in Iran. It's not just the fact that Iran is home to roughly 20 million ethnic Azeris that explains the strong interest in Iranian events. Both government officials and opposition politicians in Baku are searching for political lessons in the news coming out of Tehran.

The ability of popular protests in Iran to alter that country's political process has not escaped the attention of either Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev's administration or its opponents in Baku.
The implications are not openly discussed. But Azerbaijani media coverage of the Tehran demonstrations clearly indicates that officials and opposition leaders are interpreting Iranian events differently.

Azerbaijan's pro-government television channels have limited their coverage to short news reports that focus more on Iranian government statements than on footage of demonstrations or violence. Similarly, comments by incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dominate these channels' reports. Only independent broadcaster ANS has focused on protest scenes.

The restrained coverage on state-controlled channels reflects the government's own caution concerning Iran. President Ilham Aliyev, expressing pleasure with the "constantly developing business contacts" between Iran and Azerbaijan, was among the first world leaders to congratulate Ahmadinejad with supposed re-election in the contentious June 12 vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In remarks to reporters on June 22, Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov underlined Azerbaijan's desire to see a return to "stability [in Iran] as soon as possible."

The relative silence of broadcast outlets in Baku contrasts sharply with the print media coverage in the country. Several high-profile, opposition-oriented newspapers have concentrated their coverage on the challenge posed to Iran's political establishment, or, as the Russian-language Zerkalo (Mirror) daily put it, "the approaching collapse of the totalitarian regime in Iran and the beginning of serious reforms in the country." Both opposition and independent print outlets have strongly condemned the violence against supporters of Mir Hussein Mousavi, the aggrieved presidential challenger. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Baku-based political analyst Togrul Juvarly argues that Azerbaijani newspapers are essentially trying to project Iran's current mood for change onto Azerbaijan. "It was done between the lines, but one could clearly notice it," Juvarly said.

Iran's political upheaval -- like that in recent years in Armenia and Georgia -- raises questions in Baku about the nature of Azerbaijan's political system, which has appeared to drift in an authoritarian direction in recent years. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "[T]he interest of the Azerbaijani [print] media and public in revolutions and mass protests in neighboring Iran, Georgia, Armenia is, therefore, natural," Juvarly said.

Regarding the recent Iranian election, experts in Baku believe that it will have no serious impact on Iranian-Azerbaijani relations. "If Ahmadinejad will have to leave office, it would likely soften Iran's foreign policy on relations with the United States and other Western countries, but there will not be a direct impact on relations with Azerbaijan," said political analyst Elhan Shahinoglu.

Many experts in Azerbaijan, including Baku State University professor Atamoglan Mammadli, a Persian history scholar, believe the root cause of the election-related upheaval is a power struggle within the Islamic Republic's political and religious elite.

For Azerbaijan's government, eager for stability at home and in Iran, the lack of active ethnic Azeri involvement in Tehran's protests so far is welcome news. Commented Deputy Foreign Minister Azimov: "I hope the problems in Iran will find a political solution on democratic grounds."