ARMENIA: RETURN OF FUGITIVE JOURNALIST PUTS AMNESTY TO TEST

Under the terms of the amnesty, individuals wanted by police in connection with the March 2008 clash with protesters, will avoid criminal prosecutions if they turn themselves into law enforcement officials by July 31. Pashinian, who went into hiding after last year's incident, had been charged with instigating the violence that ensued and planning a coup against President Serzh Sargsyan.

Based on those charges, Pashinian, the 34-year-old editor-in-chief of the opposition daily Haykakan Zhamanak, faces a potential prison sentence of four to five years. If the sentence exceeds five years, he will not be eligible for the amnesty.

Armenian analysts are divided over what Pashinian's sentencing - and potential amnesty - will mean for the country's political scene.

Mitq Research Center political analyst Hrant Melik-Shahnazarian contends that Pashinian, a fiery orator and popular public figure, could help reinvigorate Armenia's opposition. He puts slim odds on the chance that the government will set him free, however.

"Given the rivalry - I don't want to say 'hostility' - between the government and the opposition, I don't think the authorities will set him free," Melik- Shahnazarian said.

Independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian, however, counters that Pashinian poses a greater threat to the government in jail than out of jail.

"I think now. . . . since there are no elections ahead, the authorities will be wise enough to release Pashinian because otherwise it will only work to his benefit," Bozoian said. He added, however, that Pashinian's fate will cause no "significant political turmoil."

Opposition analyst Suren Sureniants skirted predictions about Pashinian's sentencing, but underlined that the government may try to show "goodwill" by opting for "a preventive punishment" rather than an arrest.

If such an option is under consideration, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia is not showing its hand. Party spokesperson Eduard Sharmazanov declined to comment about Nikol Pashinian, claiming that he did not "know any person by that name."

"Political issues need to be solved on a political level, and legal ones on a legal level," commented Sharmazanov. "And everything should be within the bounds of the law."

Pashinian's name, though, still carries weight with followers of Ter Petrosian, who often appeared to treat him as a protege in the rallies leading up to the 2008 presidential election.

Pashinian's decision to surrender to police became a dominant theme of a July 2 evening rally in Yerevan that drew thousands.

"Nikol Pashinian's courageous step, appearing at the general prosecutor's office yesterday, ready to share the fate of his imprisoned friends and not afraid of the unjust trial awaiting him, is also worth revering," declared Ter Petrosian to supporters. "I am sure that my people will back one of their most honorable sons and will know no rest until Nikol and other political prisoners return home."

The June 19 amnesty applies to the cases of some 2,000 people sentenced to prison terms of less than five years for the 2008 clash, but will not affect 18 individuals already in detention.