Afghanistan: Karzai Braces for Emboldened Challengers as Election Nears

"Its probably going to be Karzai, isn't it?" lamented Fareed, a taxi driver in Kabul as he weaved his way through crowded traffic on cratered roads lined with open sewers and glitzy new glass and chrome buildings. "I don't like him, but I might vote for him," he added with a tone of deep resignation.

Afghan citizens will go to the polls next month amid an escalation of Taliban violence. The first four months of 2009 saw a 46 percent increase in security-related incidents over the previous. Since then, the fighting has continued to intensify with a new large-scale military operation in southern Helmand Province. While those operations are being touted as an effort to boost security before the polls, most observers expect violence will continue to increase until election day on August 20.

Incumbent President Hamid Karzai's shrewd maneuvering in the early stages of the campaign appears to have put him ahead in the race. Despite considerable voter disenchantment due to increasing violence, bad governance and inadequate reconstruction progress, the anti-incumbency vote is divided among as many as 41 challengers. Moreover, observers speculate that Afghanistan's nascent democratic polity also tends to favor the likely winner, thus drawing votes even from those who would prefer to see him replaced. They suggest this tendency developed over 30 years of war when backing the most powerful figure was a survival mechanism.

To enhance his chances, Karzai and his supporters have sought to forge a series of truces with Taliban insurgents. The government reached the first such truce on July 25 in Badghis Province, situated near the border with Turkmenistan. The area is not considered a Taliban stronghold.

In recent days, what appeared to be a fait accompli is now seeing a subtle subterranean shift. The image that Karzai is vulnerable seems to be spreading. "Yes, it looks like Karzai has done all the right deals. But if the mood changes, this might even go against him. The powerful figures he has aligned with are themselves discredited. Can they even deliver the votes? They are no longer as powerful as they were four years ago," says Javid, who works with an international news agency and asked his last name not be printed.

Among those now on Karzai's side are the northern strongman Abdul Rashid Dostum. Dostum, who was earlier appointed to the mainly symbolic post of presidential chief of staff, was removed from that position following a series of embarrassing events that included the kidnapping of a rival in downtown Kabul. Evidence also came to light earlier in July that forces under Dostum's control may have carried out war crimes, in particular the mass killing of prisoners.

Karzai also sought to bolster his base by reaching out to Northern Alliance commander Marshall Mohammed Qasim Fahim, who is currently campaigning as Karzai's vice-presidential running mate. Some international observers have expressed reservations about Fahim, who was a leader of the anti-Taliban resistance in the late 1990s. Early on in Karzai's presidential administration he served as defense minister and was for a brief period vice president. In a 2005 report, Human Rights Watch said Fahim was responsible for "systematic human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law." While campaigning in Kunduz Province on July 26, Fahim's convoy experienced an ambush. The vice presidential candidate was not hurt in the episode.

As the attack underscored, increased violence has curtailed the ability of candidates to canvass for votes, not just for the presidential polls but also for the concurrently held provincial council elections. A joint monitoring project carried out by the UN's Assistance mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission during the nomination and challenge period from April 25 to June 12 expressed concern that the period was characterized by deteriorating security in many parts of the country. Worryingly, the report described widespread intimidation throughout the country. "Insecurity will have an impact on the overall ability of candidates to actively campaign and by extension, on the ability of voters to make informed choices," the report stated.

Violence is a constant feature of the campaign as it enters the home stretch. On July 28, for example, a campaign manager for Abdullah Abdullah, one of Karzai's leading challengers, was badly wounded and his driver killed in a July 28 attack in Laghman Province. In Helmand Province on the same day, a bomb killed eight private security guards.

The pool of possible winners appears to have narrowed to the incumbent Karzai and two former cabinet members: former Foreign Minister and Northern Alliance leader Abdullah Abdullah and former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani.

In recent weeks, speculation on the likely winner, which centered for weeks on Karzai, has shifted to a question on whether the elections will necessitate a second round of polling. Under Afghanistan's electoral law, unless a candidate can secure more than 51 percent in the first round, there must be a runoff. In a runoff, the contest would likely narrow to a choice between Karzai and one other opposition candidate, thus making possible a consolidation of anti-incumbency votes. "A second round would at least be healthy, in terms of democracy. I think a Karzai win in the first round will disappoint Afghans and create greater resentment and instability," said a western aid worker who wished not to be identified.

The polls are also turning into a test of Afghanistan's independence. Many Afghans suspect, perhaps unfairly, that the next president of the country will be picked in Washington. "Do you think we will be the ones to decide? It is America which picks our leader," says Naqib, an educated, middle-aged former civil servant who stayed in Afghanistan through all the years of war.

While the US did play a major role in selecting Karzai as the first president and backing him for his second term, relations between Karzai and the Obama Administration have been much cooler than during the Bush years. The US has kept a respectable distance from the contest, perhaps, some say, since there are no clear challengers to back.

Both the suspicion about a hidden foreign hand and the resignation about the reelection of the incumbent candidate reflect Afghan voters' limited belief in their own ability to affect democratic change. However, there are signs that this is already changing with some questioning the qualification of candidates and the fairness of the process.

On a July 21 election-related visit to Afghanistan, EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana was repeatedly asked by the Afghan media why he had singled out three of the 41 challengers for meetings. Was this based on his presumption that no one else could win, journalists asked. While the repetitive questions annoyed EU officials, they perhaps denoted the Afghans' increasing awareness about the importance of a transparent and credible electoral process.