Azerbaijan: With Departure of Two Karabakh Mediators, Future of Talks Unclear

The expected departure of the American and Russian envoys to talks over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory is diminishing Azerbaijani expectations about a potential breakthrough in the peace process.

Russian Ambassador Yuri Merzlyakov was the first to announce news of his departure from the so-called Minsk Group, a body created by Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to oversee the Karabakh negotiations, and chaired by envoys from France, the US and Russia. Merzlyakov also indicated that US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza, another Minsk Group co-chair, is leaving.

Merzlyakov, who has acted as a mediator since 2002, told the Trend news agency on July 22 that Bryza and he would leave their posts by the end of the year. Merzlyakov claimed that Bryza's last visit to the region as US ambassador to the Minsk Group would take place in September.

Bryza has worked on the Karabakh talks since 2006 and has also advised on US Caspian Basin energy policy. The US State Department has not issued any official information about Bryza's departure from the Minsk Group. A State Department source, however, told RFE/RL's Azerbaijani service on July 31 that Bryza will end his term with the Minsk Group in late September.

Despite Azerbaijan's growing energy ties with Russia, the news of Merzlyakov's departure sparked scant reaction in Baku. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The departure of Bryza, who enjoys near-celebrity status in both Azerbaijan and Georgia, has re-ignited speculation both about the Karabakh negotiations and his own future career.

In an August 5 interview with the APA news agency, Bryza treaded cautiously on both counts. "I don't know what exactly is going to be next for me," he said. "I will have a new assignment soon. . . . I just have to be patient."

Bryza added that "I am not done yet with the Minsk Group." The US diplomat said that he will travel to the South Caucasus "on behalf of all three co-chairs" in roughly 10 days to try and move forward with "the updated ideas of the Madrid Document, which we hope will lay the foundation for an agreement soon." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

An updated version of the Madrid Principles is expected in October, when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan are slotted to meet. Among other provisions, the principles provide for the return of land bordering Karabakh to Azerbaijani control; the right of all Internally Displaced Persons to return to Karabakh; a land corridor linking Karabakh to Armenia; international peacekeeping operations; and, eventually, a referendum to determine Karabakh's final status.

One Baku expert believes that the discussion about Merzlyakov's and Bryza's reported departures suggests that the October summit may prove the last chance for the current Minsk Group to finalize the framework agreement. "It could end with a breakthrough and signing an agreement on basic principles in October or with failure. It is difficult to say what the mediators will offer, if the current process fails," noted political analyst Rasim Musabekov.

Another expert, however, contends that Bryza's and Merzlyakov's departures will have little or no impact on the negotiations. "Diplomats' personalities are important, but the will of the superpowers' leadership is a much more significant factor," commented Elhan Shahinoglu of Baku's Atlas think-tank. "If Moscow and Washington will continue to be active in the Nagorno-Karabakh talks as they have been in recent months, there is hope for progress."

One former presidential foreign policy aide, and a critic of the Madrid Principles, agrees.
Neither Bryza nor Merzlyakov, he added, has brought anything serious to the table during their tenures, said Vafa Guluzade, who served as Azerbaijan's envoy to the Karabakh talks between 1993 and 1998. "[L]ittle depends on the Minsk Group's co-chairs in the conflict resolution process, and their replacement is not going to affect the process seriously," Guluzade said.

Some experts in the United States point out that Bryza is viewed with suspicion by the Kremlin for having a perceived bias for Georgia against Russia. [For background, click here] Thus it is possible that the joint departures of Bryza and Merzlyakov could be a quid-pro-quo move with an eye toward helping Russia and the United States "reset" relations.

Whatever the case, with a question mark over details of Bryza's next career move, attention is turning to the empty US ambassador's post to Azerbaijan. Despite Bryza's denials, Azerbaijani media continues to cite an article in the June 2009 Foreign Policy magazine that reported that he would be appointed to the job. The previous ambassador, Anne Derse, left Azerbaijan in early July. US President Barack Obama has not yet named her successor.

In mid-July, the Turan news agency, citing unnamed sources in Washington, DC, claimed that the White House, reportedly uncertain whether Congress would support Bryza's candidacy for ambassador, is now debating his selection. Baku observers differ on the possibility of such an appointment.

Shahinoglu calls the US diplomat "a controversial figure" despite his "constant optimism." Bryza has reportedly close ties with Azerbaijani officials that could spark unease among many Azerbaijanis if he is named ambassador to Baku, the analyst argued. Opposition leaders in Baku are known to be opposed to Bryza's nomination.

Another Baku expert, Musabekov contended that "Bryza's overly close ties with the Azerbaijani ruling elite are exaggerated."

"I think he has close working ties with the Azerbaijani leadership, which is normal for a diplomat who has been the Minsk Group's co-chair for [three] years," Musabekov said. A US embassy spokesperson declined to comment on reports about Bryza's candidacy for the post.