Uzbekistan: Germany Apparently Seeks Tashkent's Help to Combat Islamic Terrorist Cell

Concern over a possible domestic terrorism plot appears to have motivated German security officials to invite Uzbekistan's notorious secret police chief, Rustam Inoyatov, to Berlin for talks.

Inoyatov's arrival in Germany prompted a public relations uproar for Berlin, as the visit occurred just days after the European Union, acting primarily at Germany's behest, lifted a visa ban on top Uzbek officials. The ban had been imposed following the Andijan events in 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The visit was arranged by the German intelligence service, or BND, according to a report in the German daily Die Tageszeitung. The newspaper cited an unidentified source as saying the BND arranged for a visa to be issued to Inoyatov at the German Embassy in Tashkent without the involvement of Germany's Foreign Ministry.

Officials connected with the German Chancellery, Foreign Office, Interior Ministry and BND have all declined to publicly comment on any aspect of Inoyatov's visit. Some German political analysts say the surrounding circumstances and the timing of Inoyatov's visit suggest that Berlin was seeking Uzbekistan's help in thwarting potential Islamic radical terrorist attacks on German soil. Specifically, German security officials see a group called the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), an offshoot of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, as a serious threat to stage an attack inside Germany.

In September 2007, the German Federal Criminal Police broke up an IJU terrorist cell in a rural village between Hanover and Frankfurt, arresting three suspected members. Earlier this October, authorities apprehended a fourth member of the IJU cell outside Frankfurt.

At present, the BND characterizes the IJU as one of the most dangerous terrorist groups in Germany. Helping to stoke fears of a possible attack, another IJU member, and one of Germany's most wanted individuals, Eric Breininger, recently sent a video-message from Afghanistan to German authorities. In the six-minute clip, which was posted on the IJU-website in mid-October, the 21-year-old convert to Islam warned that Germany had become a target for Islamist militants because of the presence of German troops in Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.

Breininger additionally vowed that he and his confederates would wage "war against the occupiers" until Central Asia was "liberated." Analysts believe Breininger is currently operating underground somewhere near the Afghan-Pakistan border, most likely in Waziristan. Germany is the only member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to maintain a base in Uzbekistan -- located at Termez along the Uzbek-Afghan border.

Just days after the Breininger video reportedly surfaced, Inoyatov was in Berlin for security discussions. The visit came before the controversy stirred by the EU's decision on October 13 to ease sanctions against Uzbek officials had yet to die down. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Evaluating the potential threat posed by Uzbek jihadists, Guido Steinberg, a researcher at the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs, described the IJU as "a young and small organisation" that "has joined forces with the Taliban in Afghanistan and with al-Qaeda on the global level." He added that if "Uzbeks and Turks continue to increase their role in international terrorism then it will primarily be Germany, alongside Turkey, that will be affected."

Another possible explanation for Inoyatov's visit may be related to the West's efforts to streamline its supply lines for troops in Afghanistan. In particular, the United States, Germany and other NATO members are interested in establishing a reliable rail supply network, which would greatly reduce the costs associated with conducting Afghan military operations. At present, all rail routes are dependent on Russia. Given the renewal of tension between Russia and the West in recent months, Washington and Berlin are interested in developing an alternative route. One route reportedly under consideration would cross Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan before reaching Afghanistan. In addition, the German military seeks to build a railway connecting Termez in Uzbekistan to Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan's main hub in the North, and proceeding southeast to the crossroads city of Pul-i-Khumri in Baghlan Province.

Afghanistan currently has only about 15 miles of operable railway. Adding the Pul-i-Khumri spur would thus greatly ease existing supply burdens, which currently depend on expensive air operations. The success of the rail projects would seem to require Uzbek government cooperation.

Overall, Germany has relatively extensive economic contacts with Uzbekistan and Berlin seems intent on expanding those ties, especially in the energy sphere. More than 50 German industrial and financial companies already are active in the Central Asian country. And in February 2008, a delegation of almost 100 German business executives, under the leadership of Federal Minister of Economics and Technology Michael Glos, visited Tashkent. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Left-leaning politicians in Berlin have been highly critical of the EU's October 13 decision to ease sanctions against Tashkent. In justifying its action, Brussels cited "progress achieved in Uzbekistan in the last year with regard to respect for the rule of law and protection of human rights." This assessment was given despite the fact that President Islam Karimov appeared to flout an Uzbek constitutional ban on a third term. In addition, human rights experts say government opponents and non-governmental organization activists inside Uzbekistan continue to routinely face harassment, including politically motivated jailings.

"The Uzbek government only met some of the conditions imposed by the European Union, but still fails to end its harassment, to accredit human rights observers and to allow the UN special rapporteur on torture to visit the country," complained Volker Beck, parliamentarian chief executive officer of the Green Party, in a press release.

A commentary published by Die Tageszeitung argued that Germany's decision to engage top Uzbek leaders itself constituted a security risk. "When a democracy makes deals with rogue regimes to fight terrorism, the terrorists have already won," the commentary said. "People like Karimov and Inoyatov are a much bigger security risk than some bearded cave men."