Afghanistan: Opinion Survey Reveals Increasing Worry Among Afghans

The lack of security outranks poor economic conditions as the population's top worry in Afghanistan, according to a newly released public opinion survey. While support for the country's reconstruction process has declined over the past two years, a plurality still believes the country is moving in the right direction.

The opinion survey, prepared by the Asia Foundation and released October 28, represents one of the largest efforts to gauge the mood of Afghans. When compared with Asia Foundation polls in previous years, the 2008 results indicate that Afghans are experiencing a steady decline of hope for a better future, and they are growing increasingly disenchanted with the government's performance. At the same time, the 2008 survey shows that public acceptance of the presence of foreign troops on Afghan soil remains steady, as does approval of international assistance efforts.

According to the survey, the percentage of the population that feels the country is moving in the right direction dropped from 44 percent in 2006 to 38 percent in 2008, while the number saying the country is going in the wrong direction increased from 21 percent in 2006 to 32 percent this year.

In 2006, economic worries topped the list of concerns for Afghans, but over the last two years security worries have surged ahead. Nationally, 36 percent of respondents in the 2008 survey identified security as the biggest problem, followed by 31 percent who cited unemployment as their main concern. A breakdown of responses by region showed that insecure feelings are spreading across Afghanistan, and are no longer limited to the traditional hotbeds of Islamic militant activity in southern and eastern sections of the country. Even relatively stable areas in the North registered a drop in confidence.

The survey also indicates that the perception of insecurity is more widespread than actual incidents of violence. In addition, the results seem to dispel the notion that Islamic insurgents are the most widespread cause of insecurity. Just over 1 percent of the Afghan population reported they had experienced violence at the hands of insurgents or militants. In a worrying trend, 1 percent of Afghans said they had suffered violence at the hands of the foreign forces, drawing attention once again to the dangers associated with the growing number of civilian casualties connected with US and NATO military operations. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In the southwest region -- which in the survey covers the provinces of Helmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Nimroz and Zabul, where the bulk of radical Islamic insurgent activity occurs -- 16 percent reported suffering from insurgent-related violence; 12 percent in those provinces suffered violence connected to actions by foreign forces.

In a deeply worrying trend, despite the expenditure of $25 billion in aid over the past seven years, and the promise of $21 billion more in additional assistance pledged during the Paris summit in June this year, there is now little difference in the number of people who feel their economic situation is better today than it was under the Taliban (39 percent) and those who feel they were better off during the Taliban era (36 percent).

The survey identifies unemployment as a "major problem." More than three-fourths said the availability of jobs in their area was very low and "a significant proportion of respondents expect the availability of jobs to be even lower in the coming year."

In analysing the biggest problems facing their country, Afghans surprisingly did not cite the lack of foreign assistance as a major issue, even though 30 percent identified the poor economy, poverty, unemployment and corruption as the biggest problems they face.

Corruption was seen as a major problem at the national level (76 percent), with as many as 51 percent terming it a major problem in their daily lives. Over half the respondents felt corruption had increased at the national level over the past 12 months, while a quarter felt it had increased in their daily lives. While a majority felt the government had done a good job, the number of those dissatisfied with the government increased by 13 percent.

In evaluating public services, Afghans positively rated their access to education and health care. Unemployment was cited as the biggest local problem followed by lack of electricity and water.

On the matter of poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, the results were mixed. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. An overwhelming majority, 82 percent, considered it wrong to cultivate poppy. But in some of the country's leading poppy-producing regions in the Southeast and East, opposition to poppy cultivation is eroding. In southeastern Afghanistan, for example, the percentage opposing poppy cultivation slipped from 85 percent in 2006 to 77 percent this year.

The revelation that fewer people believe that participation in the electoral process will bring future benefits is a worrying trend, as the country prepares to hold presidential and parliamentary elections over the next two years. Confidence in the electoral process dropped from 75 percent in 2006 to 65 percent in 2008; the number of people who were likely to vote dropped by 9 percent over last year.

Satisfaction with the democratization process in Afghanistan dropped from 73 percent last year to 68 percent in 2008, with dissatisfaction rates highest in the insurgency-prone areas of the South and the East. On the positive side, the number of Afghans who felt democracy was a challenge to Islam dropped slightly, from 29 percent to 26 percent.