Turkmenistan: Germany, Austria Embrace Realpolitik in Their Dealings with Ashgabat

The global economic slowdown appears to be giving Turkmenistan's leader, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, a boost.

Turkmenistan's own relative isolation has proven a benefit during these tough economic times, shielding Ashgabat from some of the worst effects of the worldwide credit crunch. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At the same time, the crisis has infused European governments, especially Germany, with a sense of urgency to conclude new deals that help embattled exporters. The fact that Berdymukhamedov's administration seems to be one of the few governments in the world today with money to spend is prompting European states to de-emphasize Ashgabat's troubled record on civil society development. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

This dynamic was on full display during Berdymukhamedov's recent tour of Germany and Austria. Both states rolled out the red carpet for the Turkmen leader, in what some observers described as a grand display of realpolitik.

Several factors are prompting German political leaders to set aside civil society-related issues when it comes to Turkmenistan. Foremost in the minds of many is Turkmenistan's vast energy reserves and Europe's voracious appetite for natural gas. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, Ashgabat represents a potentially lucrative market for German technology. And finally, 2009 is an election year in Germany, meaning politicians are giving priority to business deals that improve corporate profits and preserve jobs at home.

"Turkmenistan prioritizes economic development, and the European Union also is strongly inclined in this direction," Andrea Schmitz, a researcher at the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), said. "Seeing this, and in the light of the interests of large parts of the German industry, the government in Berlin has little margin to help with an improvement of the human rights situation -- as long as this help isn't really welcome."

Just last year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected the idea of hosting a state visit by Berdymukhamedov, according to political insiders in Berlin. Instead, Germany dispatched delegations to Ashgabat. The global fiscal crisis caused attitudes in Berlin to change quickly, however.

In the German capital, Berdymukhamedov met with Merkel and her main rival for power, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, as well as with Federal President Horst Köhler and Economics Minister Michael Glos. "Human rights issues are important, but not enforceable in the short term. Democratization takes its time. That's 'realpolitik' instead of naive idealism", said Alexander Rahr, the director of the Russian/Eurasia Program of the German Council on Foreign Relations.

While no blockbuster business deals were announced during the German visit, observers say a lot of ground was broken. German officials, including Glos, heralded Ashgabat as a potential investment destination, while urging further reforms designed to protect investor rights and better regulate economic activity. Berdymukhamedov, meanwhile, impressed German executives with a speech in Berlin, delivered in German, during an economic forum, according to Rahr, who participated in the event. The two sides also focused on promoting the ratification of an Interim Trade Agreement between the EU and Turkmenistan. "Ratification would boost EU-Turkmen relations and enable the establishment of another EU [diplomatic] representation in Central Asia," Schmitz said.

Discussions between German and Turkmen leaders often turned to energy issues. Germany, as well as other EU members, is eager to reduce its dependency on Russia for gas supplies. Berdymukhamedov, in turn, is keeping his options open, not making any specific commitments to export gas via a route bypassing Russia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In Germany, and more so in Austria, officials brought up the possibility of Turkmenistan's participation in the Nabucco pipeline, which would help funnel gas from the Caspian Basin to Western Europe, while keeping the Kremlin out of the equation. The pipeline remains shrouded in questions about its feasibility, and some experts continue to question whether Nabucco will ever get built. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Yet, even if the pipeline project never materializes, the discussions could still prove fruitful, Rahr said.

"Promises are made easily, but not necessarily kept. Nabucco probably will become a non-starter, but at least it will contribute to the EU's continuing rapprochement in the region," Rahr said, adding that "Russia won't be able to sustain its control over Central Asian energy resources exclusively in the long run."

Germany's economic interests in Turkmenistan are not only limited to energy resources. About 50 German industrial and financial companies are already active in the country. Bilateral trade volume reached 161 million euros ($204 million) in 2007, according to the German Foreign Ministry. At a joint press briefing with Berdymukhamedov, Chancellor Merkel stated that "the intensity of our cooperation is still significantly below its potential."

During her discussions with Berdymukhamedov, the chancellor reportedly stressed that Germany had a lot to offer Ashgabat, in terms of providing the equipment that is needed for infrastructure improvements. In many economic development areas, German technology "is of particular interest for the Central Asian state," said Schmitz, the SWP researcher.

In Vienna, where Berdymukhamedov's 140-strong delegation arrived November 16, economic and trade topics were also the focus of talks. Austrian Federal President Heinz Fischer welcomed the Turkmen president in his residence, the Hofburg, and hosted the signing of an Austrian-Turkmen memorandum on political and economic cooperation. Berdymukhamedov also met with the director of the Austrian company OMV, which is the leading member of a consortium trying to advance the Nabucco project.

Prior to Berdymukhamedov's November 13 arrival in Germany, Human Rights Watch issued an open letter to both Merkel and Fischer, urging the two leaders to press the Turkmen leader to free political prisoners and repeal laws that enable the stifling of dissent. HRW's plea fell on deaf ears in Berlin and Vienna. Merkel has spoken out in past years about rights abuses in Russia and other countries, most prominently when she received the Dalai Lama in the Chancellery and caused a diplomatic cooling-off with China. But at the press conference following to her conversation with Berdymukhamedov, she glossed over the human rights issue. "The European Union and Germany are, of course, also talking about questions relating to law-making, the improvement of human rights and the openness of society", Merkel said at the short joint briefing with the Turkmen President, where no questions were accepted.

In emphasizing deals over personal freedoms in its relations with Turkmenistan, the EU may be making it more difficult to maintain stability in Central Asia, a region that is vulnerable to getting caught up in a vicious cycle of government repression and Islamic radicalism.

"Germany's and Austria's Turkmenistan-policy is affected by security and business interests. That may be legitimate, but if so, one should speak out frankly about it. Effectively, there's no public political debate and no media coverage of it," said Gerhard Mangott, an Austrian professor from the International Security Research Group and the University of Innsbruck. He went on to warn that with the present approach toward Turkmenistan, the EU risks "losing its credibility among opposition groups and civil society movements all over Central Asia."