KABUL FRONT QUIET FOR NOW
A EurasiaNet Q&A with David Rohde

US ground operations began October 19 with two night raids by Army Rangers in southern Afghanistan. Pentagon officials in Washington said the raids met only light opposition. Meanwhile, at the Kabul front, where Northern Alliance troops are positioned about 30 miles from the Afghan capital, an expected offensive has yet to materialize. The US military has yet to bomb Taliban defensive positions in this key battlezone. EurasiaNet spoke to New York Times correspondent David Rohde about the latest developments on the Kabul front. Rohde is also an individual project fellow of the Open Society Institute. The text of his comments follow:

EurasiaNet: What is the latest situation at the front?

Rohde: There are continued light skirmishes, but there is no major offensive. For the Northern Alliance it's the same old waiting game. Alliance commanders would like the United States to bomb Taliban front line positions, but it hasn't happened yet.

EurasiaNet: Now it appears that US special forces are active on the ground in Afghanistan. Do you have any indication where they are active?

Rohde: They appear to be active in the southern part of the country. Alliance officials could be lying to us, but they say that there are no special forces here in the north. That could obviously change. There is an airstrip being built near here in a town called Golbahar that will be used by the alliance to fly supplies, but it could also be used by C-130s and other American aircraft. .... No American or Alliance official has ever said that it would be used by American planes. The alliance has a significant supply problem.

EurasiaNet: When will that airfield be ready?

Rohde: It's not clear. Alliance leaders said it would be ready in five days, but that was a week ago.

EurasiaNet: What is your opinon of the capabilities of the Northern Alliance and its leadership?

Rohde: It's very hard to know. They have some units that are weak, but others are much more professional and battle tested. They have very few men, and you get the sense that if they are going to make an assault, they feel they only have one shot at it, and they can't afford a lot of casualties. They do have some legitimate complaints. Very little military or financial aid has come their way. It's understandable why they would hesitate to launch an assault. They are outnumbered three to one by the Taliban.

EurasiaNet: But you think they are a well-motivated force?

Rohde: Generally, yes. It varies from unit to unit. .. They certainly know the terrain far better than American soldiers. ... There is definitely rising frustration among alliance officials, however. There is a sense among them that winter and Ramadan (the Islamic holy month of fasting) will be here in mid-November and that this will slow down air attacks and ground operations. They think there is a need to move now.

EurasiaNet: What happens if the current window of opportunity that now exists closes?

Rohde: It would be much more difficult to launch a major ground offensive during the winter. And that would clearly be a very large propaganda victory for the Taliban. If the US bombing drags on, causing more growing casualties and a humanitarian aid problem, then it will become more difficult for the United States. The impression that you get in this country is that they're so used to war here that the Taliban won't cave under the bombing campaign. It's going to take some sort of ground attack.

EurasiaNet: What kind of resistance is the Taliban mounting on the Kabul front?

Rohde: Because the United States has not bombed, the Taliban has been able to reinforce their positions. There are about 7,000 Taliban troops and about 200 tanks and artillery pieces all along the front north of Kabul.

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Posted October 20, 2001 © Eurasianet
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