Uzbekistan is Experiencing Calm Before Storm - Expert

Uzbekistan is experiencing a lull before a likely storm, a prominent Central Asia analyst contends. With Uzbek leaders now refusing to engage in any give-and-take, Western nations should consider targeted sanctions against Tashkent to compel a revival of dialogue aimed at limiting the risk of instability, the expert added.

Since the Andijan events of last May, Uzbek leader Islam Karimov has turned his back on erstwhile allies, namely the United States and European Union, and has fastened an ideological straitjacket on Uzbek society. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Civil society development, along with many forms of free enterprise, has ground to a halt, as Karimov has made his embattled administration's survival the top national priority. The resulting economic and social stagnation is likely at some point to produce an explosion of pent-up popular frustration, said Michael Hall, the Central Asia Project Director for Crisis Group.

"The danger of further instability remains, despite the apparent calm that is predominating at the moment," Hall said during an Open Forum at the Open Society Institute in New York on February 27. "It is safe to say that any serious instability in Uzbekistan could [have] very devastating consequences – not just for this country [Uzbekistan] but for Central Asia as a whole." Hall's appearance at the Open Forum followed the February 17 publication of a Crisis Group report titled "Uzbekistan: In for the Long Haul." The report characterized Uzbekistan as having traveled "well down the path of self-destruction." [To see the report, click here].

Relative tranquility in Uzbekistan at present has been achieved through the ruthless use of governmental force, stifling the expression of any form of unsanctioned civic or religious belief. The crackdown has extended far beyond the arrest of suspected Islamic radicals and the closure of foreign-financed non-governmental organizations, Hall said. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Seemingly apolitical organizations have been caught up in the government's campaign to choke off dissent. "There has been pressure put on all kinds of organizations," Hall said. "Libraries, even beekeeper [associations], have been forced to shut down. Apparently, any kind of activity ... is something that is regarded as a potential threat."

Official suspicion is also strangling the economy. In a policy that pre-dates the Andijan crackdown, the government has imposed widening restrictions on small-scale entrepreneurs, especially traders at the country's myriad bazaars. Tighter restrictions and higher official costs have forced many traders out of business. "These policies have been continuing for a number of years and popular anger is growing as evidenced by the number of demonstrations that were quite large throughout the country in the time leading up to Andijan," Hall said.

According to official assertions, the Uzbek economy is growing at a 7 percent rate. But Hall questioned the reliability of the government's statistics. Independent estimates put growth in the 2-3 percent range, with the economy sustained solely by the export of commodities, especially cotton, gold and, increasingly, natural gas, Hall said. Export revenue, he added, tends to go "to a very small elite and [does] not reach down to the people." Indeed, the government's continued reliance on forced labor to gather the cotton harvest serves to heighten popular discontent, he added.

While frustration may be running high, the probability of another wave of mass demonstrations would seem relatively low, Hall maintained. The government's post-Andijan crackdown seems to have achieved one of its main aims – cowing the population, Hall indicated. "One of the clear messages of Andijan is that dissent will be dealt with very severely," Hall said. "This makes the possibility of large-scale uprisings and any kind of colored revolutions in Uzbekistan extremely unlikely."

One of the largest threats facing Uzbekistan concerns Karimov's own mortality. The government's crackdown has left power increasingly concentrated in Karimov's hands, while seemingly eradicating mechanisms that could enable a stable transfer of power. "There have been a number of rumors of Karimov's poor health. ... This inevitably leads to the question of succession," Hall said.

Lacking a clear-cut line of succession opens the way for a debilitating power struggle among those hoping to succeed Karimov. As the political rivals scramble at the top, impoverished Uzbeks might find a vent for their frustrations. "There are no independent political institutions that could deal with the issue of succession," Hall said. "Any kind of succession is something ... quite likely to be accompanied by conflict."

Repression is also playing into the hands of Islamic radical groups, such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir, that are working clandestinely to topple Karimov's administration. The government's reliance on repression "may have the effect of backfiring," Hall said, adding that the "decimation" of Uzbek civil society "creates the kind of situation that Hizb-ut-Tahrir and similar organizations thrive on." He added that a new trend that is largely overlooked is that women are now joining Hizb's ranks in significant numbers.

Western states seeking to reduce the risk of regional upheaval "have very few options left," given Tashkent's refusal to discuss its policies, Hall maintained. For now, the international community should engage Uzbekistan's neighbors, especially Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, to build their capacity to deal with potential dangers arising out of a potential Uzbek implosion, including a possible refugee crisis. Over the medium term, the West should strive to re-engage the Uzbek government, Hall said, adding that "the time has come for creative thinking on what the possible consequences of unrest would be."

Hall asserted that the United States and European Union could attempt to use sanctions as a tool to prompt Karimov to re-engage. "There are certain sectors that can be targeted – the cotton industry for example," Hall said. Most prominent Uzbek cotton concerns are believed to be connected to top government officials, Hall asserted. "An effort by Western traders not to deal with these companies that are particularly closely linked to the state is one effort that might work," he said.