Kyrgyzstan is Vulnerable to Counter Revolution – Kulov

Kyrgyzstan's deposed President Askar Akayev formally submitted his resignation on April 4, removing a political obstacle hampering the provisional government's ability to consolidate its authority. However, just Kyrgyzstan's new leaders solved the Akayev dilemma, signs of a new, and potentially more debilitating problem arose.

Akayev signed his resignation at the Kyrgyz Embassy in Moscow. According to the Kyrgyz news agency reports, parliament will consider on April 5 a measure to extend to the former president a security guarantee that could enable him to return to Kyrgyzstan. Akayev, according to various accounts, has expressed a desire to resume research work in physics – his profession before entering politics in the early 1990s.

Akayev's reluctance to resign had stirred controversy about the legitimacy of the provisional government, headed by interim President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Bakiyev on April 4 sought to address other problems that have dogged the provisional government -- including controversial political appointments – by establishing a special commission on stabilization. The commission, comprising representatives from parliament, political parties and non-governmental organizations, will prepare a comprehensive report on the events that drove the Kyrgyz revolution on March 24, and make recommendations on how to strengthen civil society in the country. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Criticism of Bakiyev's political management style has spread quickly within Kyrgyzstan's erstwhile opposition movement, prompting some local analysts to predict that the provisional government could become paralyzed by infighting. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The presidential elections, scheduled for June 26, are helping to stoke internal rivalries.

The presidential race has come into sharper focus over the last few days with Feliks Kulov, a former Akayev vice president turned political prisoner, declaring his intention to run for the presidency. Kulov's candidacy sets up a sectional battle surrounding the looming presidential race, as he is generally viewed as representing northern political and economic interests while Bakiyev is recognized as the candidate of the South.

In the days immediately following Akayev's ouster, Kulov served as the provisional government's security coordinator and he appeared to offer tentative backing for Bakiyev's presidential ambitions. However, Bakiyev's personnel policy seemed to alienate Kulov, prompting him to leave the provisional government and become Bakiyev's chief challenger for executive power. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Kulov already appears in full campaign mode. In statements published April 4 by the official Kabar news agency, Kulov sought to build support with an important constituency – Akayev loyalists – by advocating immunity for the former president. "We should offer the president and his family a security guarantee: defense against criminal prosecution, confiscation of property and government protection," Kulov said. He went on to urge Kyrgyzstan's transformation from a presidential to parliamentary republic.

Seeking to draw attention to his extensive background in Kyrgyzstan's security services, Kulov also warned that Islamic radicals, especially the underground group Hizb-ut-Tahrir, were poised to step up their activities in hopes of establishing an Islamic-oriented government in the country. "This group is using the vacuum that Akayev left." the agency quoted Kulov as telling the German weekly magazine Der Spiegel.

Kulov spoke recently to a EurasiaNet correspondent about his political plans leading up to the presidential election. He stressed that the infighting that has gripped the provisional government exposes Kyrgyzstan to a counter-revolution, most likely carried out by "criminal structures" that would benefit from lasting political instability in the country. The full text of Kulov's interview appears below:

EurasiaNet: Will you run for the presidency?
Kulov: I will run alone, though under a plan that would exclude regional disputes – between North and South.

EurasiaNet: What are your political plans for the next three months?
Kulov: First and foremost, I have to secure political exoneration. [Kulov was sent to prison in 2001 on abuse-of-power charges that he maintains were politically motivated] Afterwards, we shall have to restore our [Ar-Namys] party, which had just semi-illegal status. Ten party members had to leave the country and become political refugees. We shall convene a party congress, rewrite the party program taking into account the new situation, and then we shall start preparing for the presidential race.

EurasiaNet: You have talked about the possibility of a counter-revolution. What do you mean, and what grounds do you see for such a development?
Kulov: First of all, counter-revolution may occur – carried out by forces seeking to establish an oppressive regime, rejecting and ruining democratic principles, which we strive to establish. There are individuals, who will attempt to take advantage of instability to retain influence. Maybe, not in terms of politics