EurasiaNet Recaps - Constitutional Referendum Could Unsettle Tajikistan

RECAPS

CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM COULD UNSETTLE TAJIKISTAN

Zafar Abdullayev 4/18/03
A Q&A with Said Abdullo Nuri, head of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan

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A planned constitutional referendum, scheduled for June 22, is stirring political tension in Tajikistan. The most contentious proposed change concerns lifting the current presidential term limit to one seven-year term. The referendum proposal would permit the president to run for reelection. Opposition leaders have forcefully opposed the planned change to Article 65, which covers term-limit provisions. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Meanwhile, the incumbent, Imomali Rahmonov, strongly backs the changes, but denies that he seeks to use them to enhance his personal authority. "I say frankly that I have opposed and will oppose the cult of personality of the president. The [new] constitution is not for Rahmonov," the president said in his state-of-the-nation address in early April.

The Tajik parliament endorsed the constitutional referendum proposal in March amid heated debate. The leading opposition force in Tajikistan, the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), is opposed to the notion of allowing the president to run for re-election. EurasiaNet spoke to IRP head Said Abdullo Nuri about the political struggle surrounding the constitutional referendum and about the impact of the Iraq conflict on Central Asia. The text of his comments follows:

EurasiaNet: What do you think about the recent parliament session?
Nuri: In my opinion, the parliament’s decisions were somewhat contradictory. In particular, from the very start a group of lower chamber deputies and upper chamber members suggested roughly 30 items to be put on the agenda. Following the handover to [parliamentary] committees, the number of the items reached 56, though the initiators themselves, not any other party, could raise all additional issues. In addition, according to Article 57 of the Constitution, the idea of a referendum should be submitted for nation-wide consideration, and it should be made public through the press. However, these things never occurred.

This was a major shortcoming, in addition to the fact that political parties � represented in parliament and supported by the significant bulk of electorate � and the general population were not invited to participate in the process. Two benefits could be drawn from participation: first, to smooth any misunderstandings; second, to be able to suggest constructive proposals. In any case, I would like to note that our main goal is to secure peace and public order in Tajikistan, and this is why our party does not support � though it does not oppose either � the idea of referendum on the amendments to the Constitution. We have put forward our proposals, and we only hope that all will end calmly.

EurasiaNet: Do you think that constitutional change is in any way an urgent question for the Republic?
Nuri: First of all, there is no peace in the world. Iraq is at war now, and this war exerts a negative impact on all of us. The Afghan conflict is far from being settled and Afghanistan is still at war. As a rule, measures like referenda or elections generate tension in society. I think that today, when the situation is tense all over the world, there is no need to create a similar situation in our own country. I would like to note that constitutional amendments, especially of Article 65, which limits presidential service to two consecutive seven-year terms, might lead to complications on the political scene, in Tajik society. You had before and you have now people in Tajikistan who would strive to serve the nation and take responsibility for all the problems of the state. We are afraid that the results of the referendum may bar the implementation of their wishes.

EurasiaNet: What impact will the results of the referendum have on the provisions of the Tajik Peace Agreement [the 1997 accord that ended Tajikistan’s civil war]?
Nuri: To my mind, all crucial issues have to be resolved in accordance with this agreement. You would have trouble if this agreement were ignored. Measures like referenda create tension and lead to antagonisms and discontent. I have the impression that people, who are in charge of the government, do not observe the laws � which are fairly democratic in character. As for the common people, they do not know the laws and are unable to defend the rights they have.

EurasiaNet: Have you tried to meet with President Rahmonov and discuss the issues related to constitutional changes?
Nuri: Yes. In fact, we were planning to announce our own proposals, in particular related to Article 28 of the Constitution. We have already submitted them for the UN representatives’ and some other international organizations’ approval, and we planned to send a special address to the president or to meet him in person. But fortunately, the president himself has not endorsed the amendments to this Article. Taking into account the current situation in our society and the very spirit of the Peace Accord, he proposed to abandon discussion of these issues, and thus we resolved as much as 50 percent of the problems that we had before. Therefore, we have given up the idea of making an address to the president, but we intend to meet him before the referendum will take place, as there are still some problems to be settled. We would like the president to use his high prestige and propose to put the very idea of referendum to nation-wide consideration. That would resolve many problems.

EurasiaNet: What in your opinion would be the results of the referendum?
Nuri: All the factors taken in account, the results of the referendum will be undoubtedly positive.

EurasiaNet: What do you think will be the chances of the IRP candidate in the next presidential elections? Is your party ready, if necessary, to come to terms with some other opposition forces � Democratic Party, SDPT et al.? [For more on Tajikistan’s opposition, see EurasiaNet’s Opposition Report].
Nuri: I am sure that if the elections were free, transparent and proceeded within the bounds of law our party could score a victory. However, as it is impossible at this stage to secure all this, I think that we and other opposition parties will face serious ordeal. In spite of this we always adhere, keep nominating our candidates in all possible elections. As for the coalition with other parties � this is a question of the future.

EurasiaNet: Would you personally consider participation in presidential or any other elections?
Nuri: As for me personally, I will not take such a responsibility. As has been noted, I am implementing a mission for the people and for society: that of attaining peace and accord, and as long as I am alive, I will follow this course. Moreover, I think this is a kind of religious duty for me.

EurasiaNet: What would you say about the political situation in Tajikistan? Is there any political pluralism in Tajikistan?
Nuri: Today, compared with our neighbors, we have left them far behind in the spheres of democratic reform, pluralism and multi-party system. However, if compared with some other states of the world, we actually have not made even the first step in the right direction. One of the shortcomings of our society is that the principle of the rule of law is not sufficiently present in many areas of life and political activities. There are serious problems with the economy, political life and law and order system. Especially difficult is the economic situation, where, to my mind, the state has not done very much, especially in the sphere of poverty reduction. Basically, we have quite good laws, but the implementation of laws is on a low level. Among the most intricate problems is deeply rooted corruption, whose impact on the governance is quite negative.

EurasiaNet: What is your attitude toward the war in Iraq? Will that war have any consequences for the situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia?
Nuri: The war in Iraq is a tragedy for all humankind. This way of fighting terrorism serves in effect as an incentive to the development of terrorism. It has most serious political, economic, cultural and ecological consequences. The political consequences are becoming apparent all over the world, including the West, where in the war is on between the powerless and the authorities, and there are plenty of them � killed, wounded and arrested. Millions are going into the streets, with police fighting against them, and all are engaged in destruction instead of constructive effort. The war causes immense damage to the world economy.

We have no common borders with Iraq, but we do have common borders with Afghanistan. The United States has taken great responsibility for the support of the new government of that country, but today the money that was pledged for reconstruction of Afghanistan is being spent on the war in Persian Gulf. The war prompts the "revival" of terrorists, still alive in the region. After the beginning of the war in Iraq, the situation deteriorated in Afghanistan as well, where we can see the resumption of armed conflict. An Afghanistan that goes out of control would necessarily have a negative impact on Tajikistan and the whole region of Central Asia. We shall have to cope again with the problem of Uzbek armed opposition forces, which could again use Tajik territory [for insurgent operations]. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In case of destabilization, some other forces could use a part of the irreconcilable Tajik opposition hiding within the ranks of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Mahmud Khudoiberdiyev and his armed troops are reportedly based in Uzbekistan and might launch their own "undertaking." Drugs and arms smuggling will become an easy business, which will threaten both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the latter possessing its own opposition.

Editor�s Note: The interview was conducted by Zafar Abdullayev for EurasiaNet.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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