EurasiaNet Recaps - Azerbaijani Opposition Leader Voices Concern Over Potential for Confrontation in Baku

RECAPS

AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION LEADER VOICES CONCERN OVER POTENTIAL FOR CONFRONTATION IN BAKU
8/04/03

As power in Azerbaijan shifts from President Heidar Aliyev to his son Ilham, a pressing issue for the ruling elite in Baku is how to handle the presidential election scheduled for October 15. Already, the Aliyev administration has stepped up harassment of opposition presidential challengers. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Isa Gambar, head of the Musavat Party and one of Heidar Aliyev’s most prominent critics, told EurasiaNet that he expects pressure to build on the Azerbaijani opposition in the coming weeks and months. He adds that the risk of a political confrontation is rising in Baku. Gambar spoke to EurasiaNet before the announcement that Ilham had been appointed prime minister, paving the way for him to succeed his father in the event that the elder Aliyev succumbs to illness. The text of the interview follows.

EurasiaNet: What do you think about the recent pressures put on opposition leaders? Do you think such pressure will increase as the election date draws closer?
Gambar: Opposition leaders were under constant pressure during the whole 10-year period of Heidar Aliyev’s rule, and the harassment never abated. Now, as the election approaches, pressure is getting more intense. And it’s felt not only by the opposition leaders, but also by the members of the opposition parties and their supporters. The level of harassment will rise in the period preceding the upcoming election. � For 10 years, family members and top officers close to [Heidar] Aliyev were engaged in looting the nation riches. � They have no desire to resign in the face of regime collapse, and will resist with all means they have at their disposal. The means they have in mind are far from democratic and civilian; these are unlawful practices, coercion and crackdown. So you can only expect that the closer the election date, the stronger will be the government pressure.

EurasiaNet: What can the opposition do to counteract this pressure?
Gambar: A year ago the major opposition parties set up the Opposition Coordination Center with the main goal of creating conditions for free and fair elections and developing the ability to struggle against government pressure. This body achieved a lot of success; it held a series of large-scale actions and gathered tens of thousands of participants. Due to these joint efforts, we can report progress in promoting election code changes and creating a more democratic atmosphere. But it’s not sufficient if we want to have really free and fair elections. � At this painful and most important moment we expect the nations and international bodies to intervene, as they always expressed interest in promoting democratic state and free civil society in Azerbaijan. I believe that by joining our efforts we shall be able to defeat the reactionary forces wishing to plunge the country into chaos and anarchy.

EurasiaNet: There is a view that the growth of tension between the government and opposition is only to be expected, and that there is a possibility of confrontation between them.
Gambar: You can draw a clear vision of the pre-election situation from what was has been said above. But, true, some forces are intent on stirring tension and creating a confrontation. The closer the collapse of regime, the fiercer is the struggle among different government factions. You can talk now of several such groups, prepared for any kind of crazy action only to satisfy their cherished ambitions. � The only way to prevent full-scale confrontation is for us to be patient, to make only well weighted steps, to be committed to democratic principles, and to consistently defend the choice of people through free and democratic elections as the only way of power transition. But sometimes the lawlessness is getting so wild, and it’s very hard to calm down the emotions of those who defend our cause. Take a look at the recent events. They have violently detained the candidates for presidency, and in fact deprived me of the right to move freely around Baku. The motorcade containing myself and my bodyguards was detained on July 14 and 16 by traffic police with no good reason, and the aides of mine, security and drivers were put under arrest.

EurasiaNet: What results do you think the election will bring about? What are your own chances?
Gambar: Today Musavat is the strongest political party in the country. I will be running as the single candidate of Musavat party and the Our Azerbaijan bloc consisting of 19 parties. And this bloc will win the election.

EurasiaNet: Election results in Azerbaijan in the past have come under criticism for being rigged. What do think about the possibility of irregularities in the upcoming presidential election? Can the opposition prevent such attempts?
Gambar: As I said before, during the summer 2002 referendum, that vote was the last one that Aliyev had managed to falsify. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. And I still stand by this opinion.

EurasiaNet: What kind of support does the opposition expect from democratic nations, especially from the United States, to ensure a democratic procedure during the presidential election in Azerbaijan?
Gambar: Democratic nations and international bodies have repeatedly asserted they are interested in the victory of real democracy in our country. This is exactly what we want, and what the people of Azerbaijan want. Therefore, nations that are interested and international institutions should move more actively in this direction, and use all means to help the people of Azerbaijan in conducting democratic election.

EurasiaNet: In general, are you satisfied with the international structures activity aimed at holding the democratic election in Azerbaijan?
Gambar: They are doing their work. But it seems to me that there is a need for more serious and flexible activity.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.