Recaps / Q & A - A Fleeting Opportunity to Contain Iraq's Insurgency on Horizon

Recaps / Q & A:
A FLEETING OPPORTUNITY TO CONTAIN IRAQ'S INSURGENCY ON HORIZON - EXPERT
10/29/04

A fleeting opportunity may appear in the coming days for US and Iraqi authorities to engage their opponents and find a political compromise that brings Iraq's insurgency to an end. Nationalists and radical Islamists, who until now have refused to participate in Iraq's political process, could extend an olive branch to US and Iraqi officials in the form of an open letter, a leading expert on events in Baghdad said.

Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority on issues of democracy and governance, examined Iraqi peace prospects during an Open Forum on October 28 in Washington, DC. "There is no military solution [to Iraq]. There must be a political component," Diamond said during the Open Forum, sponsored by the Open Society Institute.

"There are signs that the former Baathists, hardliners, nationalists from the Sunni Arab heartland and radical Shiite nationalists are now willing to come in and play the political game under certain conditions," Diamond said. "This opportunity, if it presents itself, will be one of the most important things to happen since the fall of Baghdad" in April 2003.

Diamond, who served as a senior adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad from January to March 2004, declined to delve into specifics concerning the pending open letter, including the individuals and organization that are planning its publication. However, he pointed to a commentary published in the Financial Times on October 28 by University of Baghdad Professor Saad Jawad, saying it could provide clues about the demands of the nationalist-Islamist coalition. The commentary calls on the United States to acknowledge its mistakes during Iraq's reconstruction. It also says US advisors in Iyad Allawi's interim Iraqi government should be withdrawn, and Iraqi authorities given greater authority over domestic security forces. In addition, the United Nations should enjoy "the freedom to co-operate with Iraqis in forming a nationally accepted government or prepare the country for unbiased elections," the commentary states.

In discussing peace prospects, Diamond said the international community faces a choice about whether it wants "a big tent that's messy, or a smaller tent that is besieged." Diamond went on to suggest actions that Iraqi authorities could take to contain the ongoing insurgency. These steps, most of which concern the upcoming elections planned for January, include:

Allowing former Baathists not charged with any crime or human rights violation to become candidates in the upcoming election.
Allowing a reconstituted Baath party to compete in the upcoming election.
Widening the Iraqi electoral commission to include better known individuals and international observers whose participation can help reassure the Iraqi population that the election will be free and fair.
Introducing changes to the electoral system that would set aside parliamentary seats for representatives of areas where voting faces likely interruption due to continuing violence.
Developing a new strategy for economic development that emphasizes employment, and smaller reconstruction contracts for which Iraqis are better positioned to compete.
Disbursing reconstruction assistance throughout all parts of the country, both urban and rural.

In addition, Diamond stressed that the United States should maintain a policy of strict neutrality regarding the election, refraining from making any comment or gesture that could be perceived as an endorsement for a particular candidate or political faction. Washington could also boost the chances for a successful election by stating that it does not intend to establish a permanent military base in Iraq, and developing a tentative time-line for the withdrawal of all foreign troops from the country.

In the coming weeks and months, US forces should avoid aggressive action, Diamond indicated. A US-led military crackdown on Fallujah, which appears imminent, could dash hopes for a near-term political solution. Diamond warned that the consequences of missing the looming opportunity for rapprochement would be severe in terms of future Iraqi civilian casualties and American combat deaths.