Labor Party Leader: Georgia Faces "Real Threat" of Civil War

Mikheil Saakashvili -- who led the popular protests that brought down Eduard Shevardnadze's administration and who is now the front-runner to become Georgia's next president -- is striving to cast himself as a healer of Georgian society. "Our task is to heal the wounds and consolidate the whole of society ... because there are many external and internal forces that have an interest in turmoil in Georgia," Saakashvili said in a television interview November 26, shortly after he became the main opposition coalition's unified candidate in the presidential vote, scheduled for January 4.

Saakashvili's efforts to reshape his image – moving away from the firebrand rhetoric of confrontation and embracing the conciliatory language necessary for leadership –has met so far with decidedly mixed results. Many Georgians, including influential political leaders, remain skeptical about Saakashvili's personal political ambitions, and over his vision for Georgia's democratic transformation.

Shalva Natelashvili, the leader of the Labor Party, has quickly emerged as a prominent figure among those the significant segment of Georgians who are apprehensive over the direction that Georgia's provisional government is taking the country. In an interview with EurasiaNet, Natelashvili said Saakashvili leadership style would likely prove divisive for Georgia, and expressed concern that there "is a real threat of civil war."

The Labor Party, like Saakashvili's National Movement, opposed the Shevardnadze administration. But Natelashvili now declares openly that he opposes the provisional government, insisting that it came to power illegitimately.

As Georgia prepares for presidential and parliamentary elections, the Labor Party could possibly play the role of wild card. It may boycott the parliamentary vote, thus sowing doubts about its legitimacy. Or it could participate, and potentially serve as a magnet for protest votes against the interim government. If such a scenario comes to pass, Labor could prevent the provisional government – which is led by an alliance of erstwhile opposition parties, the Burjanadze-Democrats and National Movement – from controlling parliament. In turn, that could cloud prospects for the implementation of the provisional government's agenda. Natelashvili said that many Georgians are already "coming to our [Labor's] side."

Natelashvili paints a generally pessimistic picture of Georgia's future, should the provisional government consolidate its authority. Despite the current tension in Georgian-Russian relations [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive], Natelashvili believes the interim government received Moscow's assistance in the effort to force former president Eduard Shevardnadze from power. The full text of the interview follows.

EurasiaNet: Long before the rigged November 2 parliament election [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive], you announced your intention to engage Georgian presidential election of 2005. Given the current situation, will you participate in January 4 presidential elections?
Natelashvili: No, I will not. Labor Party members are going to boycott the elections, since our party does not recognize the legitimacy of Saakashvili, Zhvania and Burjanadze's interim government, as well as the sessions of the former parliament elected in 1999. This parliament has no legal effect. According to Chapter 50 of Georgian Constitution, the former parliament is regarded non-existent after the closure of its last session and before the new parliament is convened. In addition, the first session of the new parliament was already held on November 22.

EurasiaNet: The Georgian Supreme Court declared that parliamentary elections of November 2 were illegitimate. What can you say about it?
Natelashvili: The Supreme Court does not have the legal right to make such a judgment. You may look into the Georgian Constitution. It says that the judgment of this kind is the authority of the Constitutional Court, and no other body's competence. I can tell you with all responsibility that the last parliamentary vote saw much less fraud, than the vote of 1999. Incidentally, the chief of Shevardnadze's party election campaign at that time was Zurab Zhvania, who knows very well how to rig the vote. ... The Labor Party had in fact gained 17 percent of votes in 1999, though the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced that we received only 6 percent. The last election [November 2] brought us 20 percent of votes, though the CEC announced we received 12 percent.

EurasiaNet: Do you think there is any real threat of destabilization in Georgia?
Natelashvili: There is a real threat of civil war. Those who came to power by force, will not be able to retain it. The thing they did will eventually spark protest, and they are already provoking some outcries.

Nino Burjanadze elevated to the post of Mtsheta-Tianeti governor a distant relative of hers -- former Dusheti district head Koba Buchukuri. He was among the most corrupted officials, and everybody knows it. He was exposed to shame and driven out of his previous job. And now what a promotion! Examples of this kind are appearing. Those who shouted at the rallies are appointed ministers these days.

Anyway, there are already some figures, even among those who stood close to the leaders of National Movement, who now make public statements and caution Saakashvili, Burjanadze and Zhvania against favoritism.

There is a threat of complete anarchy and civil confrontation in Georgia. We might say we are losing Ajaria. The Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov had rendered help to Saakashvili and Zhvania, and it testifies to many things. Russia never gives anything free of charge. In early 1990s, when Shevardnadze came to power in Georgia with the help of Russia, we actually lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Today, when [the new leadership] comes to power, with the help of Russia, we lose the last hope to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and we can now lose Ajaria.

Ajaria is already [operating] beyond [the control of] Georgian central authority. ... Ajaria has declined contact with the interim government. If Ajaria decides to boycott parliamentary and presidential elections, they will have to be regarded illegitimate. The next thing might be the complete collapse of Georgia.

It is hard to make a prediction amid such an uncertain situation, but I think, that Russian military bases will not withdraw from Georgia; the project of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline will not take shape, and the oil will not flow through Georgia, but maybe through Armenia