AZERBAIJAN’S OPPOSITION PARTIES FACE UNIFICATION CHALLENGE
Fariz Ismailzade: 6/25/03

Azerbaijan’s political theater grew more suspenseful in late June. On June 23, the ruling New Azerbaijan party named President Heidar Aliyev as its candidate, despite Aliyev’s startling series of collapses on state television in April. The day before, the Azerbaijan Democratic Party nominated Rasul Guliyev, an exiled politician. By the October 15 vote, one major candidate may emerge to challenge Aliyev – who may no longer be in the running.

Stirrings of unity among the opposition have quickened after Aliyev’s collapse. [For more on Azerbaijan’s opposition, see EurasiaNet’s Opposition Reports]. The country’s opposition parties have talked about backing a single candidate for many years, but personal ambitions historically have driven parties farther apart. Opposition parties began coalescing in the summer of 2002, when they tried to block constitutional amendments that could smooth a course for Ilham Aliyev, the president’s son, to succeed his father. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archives].

In early June, Ali Kerimli, the chairman of the Popular Front of Azerbaijan, reportedly urged fellow opposition leaders to unify behind a single candidate. On June 14, Kerimli announced that he would visit the United States with Musavat party chairman Isa Gambar and Azerbaijan National Independence Party chief Etibar Mamidov. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archives]. If Guliyev returns from exile as a serious contender, the unity that this announcement implied will be harder to maintain.

Perhaps believing that the US Congress and George W. Bush’s administration are eager for a rapid and uncontroversial transition after Aliyev, the three opposition leaders have begun pursuing ideas about coalition building. According to observers in Baku, Kerimli has suggested that whatever party the anointed candidate belongs to would sacrifice some cabinet and ministerial positions to its allies.

As much as these parties want to end Aliyev’s ten-year presidency and block his son, they also want to keep Guliyev from marching over their platforms to power. "The real deal is between Isa Gambar and Etibar Mamidov," says a high-ranking official of one of these parties, who asked for anonymity. "Ali Kerimli is willing to support any of these two and Rasul Guliyev [who lives in the United States] will not be allowed to come back."

Unification among opposition candidates would meaningfully shrink the ruling party’s administrative and popular advantages. It would also animate local press coverage, which has already tried to tantalize voters by suggesting that parties have decided on a candidate but chosen not to disclose his name. Opposition parties have said that they are suspending discussions until all candidates have registered – the registration period ends August 6 – and will then develop a process for selecting a single candidate.

Guliyev could complicate this process. A former state oil minister who comes from the same region as the president, he may compel wide support if he challenges the president directly. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archives]. His supporters may include members of Aliyev’s elite camp who harbor misgivings about Ilham Aliyev, the vice-chairman of the state oil company.

Guliyev’s supporters have already grabbed the spotlight. On June 18, the day registration of candidates began, hundreds of Democrats picketed in front of the Central Election Commission, seeking democratic reforms to election law. They ended up fighting with police, who sent nine members to jail and drew charges of brutality.

Candidates will have a much easier time drawing attention and votes if demonstrations such as these generate support across party lines. Though most party leaders recognize this, they are also forming their own election blocs. On June 22, Qambar of Musavat signed an agreement with 20 minor opposition parties, lining up their support for his candidacy. And on June 24, the major opposition parties staged a demonstration of their own, rallying in Baku to celebrate the birthday of the president who Aliyev deposed in 1993.

Despite all this intrigue, many voters consider an Aliyev candidacy a foregone conclusion, even if they are not sure which Aliyev will carry the ruling party’s standard. "The real question is when Aliyev will put his son in the race," says Samir Javadov, a 40-year old taxi driver in Baku. The party’s senior council meeting on June 23, which formally nominated the president, sought to dispel rumors that Ilham would inherit the candidacy. But reports of the president’s frailty make many citizens seriously doubt his intention to seek or serve another term.

While voters envision a contest between the president’s son and one of the president’s established critics, party leaders have to manage expectations and egos in order to win voters’ favor. And for all the opposition’s zeal to unify behind a winner, the president may prove very hard to beat if his health holds out.

Editor’s Note: Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance writer on Caucasus geopolitics and economics based in Baku. He holds a master’s degree from Washington University in St. Louis and currently works for Cornell Caspian Consulting.

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Posted June 25, 2003 © Eurasianet
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