CRACKDOWNS, CONFUSION AHEAD FOR CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS
Alec Appelbaum : 9/13/01

If the terrorist attacks on September 11 left Americans grasping for new ways to define the world, they also reinforced a growing division in Central Asian societies. Since these states became independent, they have grappled with rising Islamic radicalism. All of the states, particularly Uzbekistan, have sought to control religious expression. Given the tragic turn of events in the United States, some experts suggest, countries with restive Muslim populations will find it more tempting than ever to formally outlaw or persecute certain forms of religion. But finding a stable battlefront will be just as difficult within these states as it is for the rest of the world.

On the surface, the atrocities of September 11 may provide support for the policies of repressive governments, such as President Islam Karimov’s administration in Uzbekistan. For the past three years, Uzbek authorities have battled Islamic insurgents, which are backed by Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. In connection with anti-insurgent efforts, human rights groups say the Uzbek government has arbitrarily sentenced thousands of citizens to lengthy prison terms for supposed links to radical Islamic groups. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. This campaign against religious extremism had drawn increasing criticism from the United States and other Western powers. But in the wake of the September 11 tragedy, the tolerance for rights violations, committed in the name of combating terrorism, seems likely to increase, some experts say.

"Quite obviously this was a service that the terrorists have rendered to just about every government that sees Islam as a sort of negative force," says Shireen Hunter, who directs Islamic studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

It will be hard to chart how this will play out specifically. Hunter expressed doubt that any head of state in Central Asia would openly tie anti-Muslim crackdowns to the attacks, but she said the World Trade Center tragedy will "create, perhaps justifiably, an atmosphere in which any Muslim is at a disadvantage. I think maybe President Karimov will say, ‘this is what I’m trying to protect you against, so don’t complain about me.’"

While some Central Asian leaders may be tempted to utilize the terror attacks in the United States as a pretext to intensify domestic repression, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev has expressed concern that the US response could significantly escalate tension in Central Asia, a traditionally Islamic region with a large Christian population. Nazarbayev has called on the UN to seek peace in Afghanistan before stoking retribution indiscriminately on Afghans or on Muslims. The Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency said Nazarbayev was worried about the possibility of a war between Christians and Muslims – a conflict that could divide and engulf his country. Neither official Christianity nor official Islam sanctioned Tuesday’s attacks, Nazarbayev noted.

Central Asian leaders, including Karimov and Nazarbayev, have expressed a desire to participate in a coordinated campaign against terrorism. But Nighmatzan Isingarin, who heads the integration committee of the nascent Eurasian Economic Community, suggested that winning a fight against terrorism would be difficult. In comments posted on the Kazakhstan Today web site, Isingarin described the September 11 explosions as the start of "a third world war, not between states, but a war which is difficult to stop, and which no state is able to cope with."

Meanwhile, Hunter and others say Russia may also attempt take advantage of the shift in American views, brought on by the attack, to make geopolitical moves in the Caucasus and Central Asia that would have been unacceptable to the United States before the tragedy.

"This is going to affect the landscape of Central Asia," Hunter says. "The Russian government is playing this very skillfully, and Putin pulled out all stops [in a speech in which he expressed condolences to the United States]. So the US will be more sympathetic to whatever Russians are doing in the future."

According to a EurasiaNet correspondent in Tbilisi, Georgia, Russian military officials in the Caucasus are already agitating for an increased effort to crush "Chechen terrorists." The correspondent added that Russian officials appeared anxious to widen the conflict, extending it to "neighboring countries who to do not seem to share the burden of the fight against this evil." This is a clear reference to Georgia, which has been bitterly criticized by Russia for insufficient efforts to seal its borders. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Moscow has said Chechen militants use Georgia as a safe haven and a re-supply center. The implication is that Russian forces, acting in the name of the war against terrorism, may attempt to occupy areas of Georgia, including the Pankisi Gorge, that are reportedly dominated by Chechens. Such action could raise instability in Georgia to dangerous levels.

Many leading experts believe a US attack against Afghanistan is inevitable. But they add that the consequences of US retaliation against the Taliban are unpredictable. "It appears that some people [in the region] have launched a serious war, with very little means, against the US, and the US will strike back as one might expect," says Barnett Rubin, a senior fellow and Afghanistan expert at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation. "This event will affect us for decades or more."

Editor’s Note: Alec Appelbaum is a contributing editor to EurasiaNet.

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Posted September 13, 2001 © Eurasianet
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