DEMOCRATIC REFORM EXPECTED TO HALT IN CENTRAL ASIA
Ivan Sigal: 9/19/01

The catastrophic events of September 11 are likely to encourage Central Asian governments to maintain and increase rights restrictions on their populations in the name of stability and security.

In the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia, most governments have already expressed their eagerness to crack down against possible terrorists, in line with the United States' proclaimed war against terrorism. The danger is that anti-terrorism efforts will be used to mask a new wave of political repression in the region.

Many observers of Central Asia believe that regional leaders intend to utilize the terrorism issue to increase internal and border security, silence opposition movements, crush civil liberties, and strengthen their own control of power and economic resources. Given that the new geopolitical environment will emphasize security and defense over democracy and civil rights, international organizations such as the OSCE and Western governments will be reluctant to criticize political repression, especially in strategic countries such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Georgia.

This will be especially true if the United States decides to attack terrorist organizations in neighboring Afghanistan. Additionally, Western governments and international organizations are likely to forgo even the pretense of impartiality with regard to their application of standards of human rights, freedom of expression, and degree of freedom of governance.

As Central Asia waits for the United States' response to the New York attacks, many believe that regional governments will halt the currently slow pace of democratic reform. A US government source working in the region said the attacks could be viewed as "a green light to quash civil liberties in Central Asia." If before September 11 there remained some pretense that Central Asian governments will be moving towards greater openness in the near future, now the question is whether existing liberties will remain. Some may argue that such a question existed before the terror. Few will dispute it now.

It should be emphasized the widely expected has not yet occurred. Despite expectations, what will actually happen in the region remains uncertain. Although many proclaim the September 11 events have fundamentally altered geopolitical reality, very little in Central Asia has changed thus far. The governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan have not reacted to possible instability with repressive measures. Apart from reports of censorship of information on the attacks, strengthened border security in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and increased militia presence on the streets of Dushanbe, all possible effects on Central Asia remain in the realm of the theoretical.

Perhaps this is because, for the most part, the civil liberties restrictions which the US and to a lesser degree Europe are suddenly debating are already mostly in place in Central Asia. Security is already tight; security ministries already imbued with all necessary authority for tracking crime and terror, or political opposition. Asked why there was no evidence of added repression following the attacks, one resident of Tashkent said, "realistically, it would be difficult for Uzbek security to be any tighter."

Indeed. Policies in place in all Central Asian states include restriction of rights of association and public gatherings, implementation of stricter visa regimes, implementation of "information security" doctrines to control information flows, maintenance of formal and informal censorship and high regulatory barriers for media, persecution of political opposition, and, in extreme cases, overlooking or tacitly supporting the torture and abuse of political and religious prisoners.

These very repressive policies engender their own opposition. Reduction in civil liberties in these countries at present is as likely to drive more people to take extreme measures to gain voice in their societies as it is to foster stability. But Central Asian governments are already working hard to propagandize these policies as necessary to the times.

Central Asian media have spent a great deal of time speculating about increased security, increased instability and possible drastic policy realignments. Local government spokesmen, television commentators, and political scientists have mixed expressions of sorrow for US victims with justifications for the crackdown against Islamic radicals at home. A typical example: a current events program broadcast by Almaty's Channel 31 focusing on a phenomenon the anchor described as "too much America." The commentator went on to describe the attacks as a backlash against the overwhelming power and influence of the United States. He added that the extent of the devastation was largely a result of American naivete towards its own security and openness.

Editor’s Note: Ivan Sigal is the Internews Network’s Regional Director for Central Asia.

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Posted September 19, 2001 © Eurasianet
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