A prominent Kyrgyz human rights activist warned that Central Asia faces a summer of tumult, saying that repressive political regimes in the region are pushing discontent to dangerous levels.

"Anything is possible because there exists across Central Asia arbitrary rule," said Ramazan Dyryldayev, the head of the Kyrgyz Committee for Human Rights. "We could easily have a renewal of conflict in the Ferghana Valley."

Relations among the Central Asian States of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have deteriorated in recent months, as officials have bickered about border demarcation, border control, water usage and unpaid gas debts. Relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have become especially strained of late largely due to a dispute over the demarcation of their common frontier.

In addition, regional governments have struggled to contain a radical Islamic insurgency in the Ferghana Valley, a fertile area shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Armed groups, in particular the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, led by Juma Namangani, have become increasingly active during the past 18 months, prompting some local analysts to warn of a spring offensive by insurgents.

Dyryldayev suggested repressive government policies, acting in combination with ongoing economic hardships, were primarily responsible for the appearance of armed opposition movements. In Uzbekistan, he noted, President Islam Karimov’s intolerance of political opposition has left his detractors no choice but to resort to violent methods. "Karimov created the internal threat all by himself," Dyryldayev said in an interview in New York with the Central Eurasia Project.

Kyrgyzstan, which has long enjoyed a reputation in the West for being an "island" of democracy in Central Asia, is moving in an authoritarian direction, Dyryldayev asserted, citing voting irregularities in the country’s recent parliamentary elections. The OSCE, in a preliminary report on the February 20 vote, said both campaign and vote-counting procedures did not fully comply with the organization’s standards.

"There may be a greater level of freedom in Kyrgyzstan, but appearances nevertheless can be deceiving," Dyryldayev said. "Conditions are very difficult for anyone who opposes incumbent authorities. … There is constant pressure exerted by special services. … Those who criticize government policy are made to suffer."

The second round of the parliamentary elections is scheduled for March 12. As of March 8, Kyrgyzstan’s Central Electoral Commission had not published a list of candidates that will participate in run-off elections for 82 seats in parliament, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. Dyryldayev alleged that the run-off results would be rigged in favor of those loyal to President Askar Akayev.

"Authorities will do anything to defend their position – to defend that which they have already accumulated," Dyryldayev said. He added that he expected government repression to intensify during the spring and summer. Presidential elections are scheduled for December.

"The presidential campaign could become a source of instability for Kyrgyzstan," Dyryldayev said.

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Posted March 9, 2000 ©Eurasianet
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	The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, politcal and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.