EurasiaNet Human Rights

Relations among the Central Asian States of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have deteriorated in recent months, as officials have bickered about border demarcation, border control, water usage and unpaid gas debts. Relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have become especially strained of late largely due to a dispute over the demarcation of their common frontier.

In addition, regional governments have struggled to contain a radical Islamic insurgency in the Ferghana Valley, a fertile area shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Armed groups, in particular the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, led by Juma Namangani, have become increasingly active during the past 18 months, prompting some local analysts to warn of a spring offensive by insurgents.

Dyryldayev suggested repressive government policies, acting in combination with ongoing economic hardships, were primarily responsible for the appearance of armed opposition movements. In Uzbekistan, he noted, President Islam Karimov's intolerance of political opposition has left his detractors no choice but to resort to violent methods. "Karimov created the internal threat all by himself," Dyryldayev said in an interview in New York with the Central Eurasia Project.

Kyrgyzstan, which has long enjoyed a reputation in the West for being an "island" of democracy in Central Asia, is moving in an authoritarian direction, Dyryldayev asserted, citing voting irregularities in the country's recent parliamentary elections. The OSCE, in a preliminary report on the February 20 vote, said both campaign and vote-counting procedures did not fully comply with the organization's standards.

"There may be a greater level of freedom in Kyrgyzstan, but appearances nevertheless can be deceiving," Dyryldayev said. "Conditions are very difficult for anyone who opposes incumbent authorities.