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ASIA-Plus INFORMATION AGENCY DUSHANBE, REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN 35/1, BOKHTAR str.8 floor
Sat.tÅt./fax: +7 /3772/ 51-01-36; Tel./fÁx /3772/ 21-78-63, "TAJIKISTAN ECONOMIC REVIEW" #12 (50) June # 1998
IN THIS ISSUE
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Top story
International cooperation
Economy
Geology
Statistics
Public relations
Regions
Who is who
Top story June 27 has, undoubtedly, already been engraved in gold on the pages of contemporary history of Tajiks. On that day, exactly one year ago, a General Agreement on Peace and National Accord was signed in Moscow. By signing the document, president of the country Emomali Rahmonov and leader of United Tajik Opposition Said Abdullo Nuri put an end to the senseless civil war, which had been raging in the country for five long years. So, one year had passed. How did it go? Reflections on the subject of Rashid Abdullayev, politologist, author of regular publications in A-P. When signing the General Agreement on peace, those who signed it, and those who facilitated its signing, were certainly aware that implementation of the agreement would be far from smooth. Moreover, many were absolutely sure that the Agreement and all its components will not work, and the peace process will come to dead end. Such guarded attitude and skepticism can hardly be called unreasoned. Among internal factors giving reason to pessimism first of all one should indicate presence in the country of forces that in five years of military and political confrontation got adopted to political, social, moral and psychological instability and marginality, and found themselves capable of benefiting from all that. It is clear that return of the society to normalcy, no matter how slowly that happens, would mean for many of them difficult breaking of the now-usual comfortable way of life, and possible reduction of profits. Therefore, for these forces such rehabilitation of the society would be undesired and unacceptable. Another internal factor is that the process of return to peace is inevitably accompanied by serious shifts in priorities in tasks and objectives of various political, political-economic and other forces, and therefore in distribution of these forces and degree of their influence on processes taking place in the country. The experience of transition to peace in other countries, which like Tajikistan passed through civil war, shows that such shifts do not occur without increase of tension and dramatic aggravation of internal political situation. The skepticism of those who did not believe in the future of peace process was to large extent pre- determined by the factor of quite real regional and wider international relations, the focus of which was the fate of Tajikistan. Development of situation after June 27, 1998 confirmed in full extent the assumption that implementation of peace accords will be not at all as smooth as desired. The growing tension caused by disagreement of some segments of military-political establishment with the signed accords and by inadequate perception of changes transformed, in July and August, into quite sizable armed conflict between various government formations. Fighting began in Dushanbe, and then spread to west and south of the country. Further on, implementation of peace accords moved from crisis to crisis. The most dramatic were the crisis in January, caused by statement of UTO leadership on suspending their participation in CNR, the crisis in March in the form of escalation of armed confrontation between government forces and formations of UTO field commanders in Kofarnihon and Leninski districts, fights in the eastern part of Dushanbe in the end of April and early May, and, finally, the political crisis that followed adoption by Majlisi Oli of the Law on Political Parties, which would ban creation and functioning of religion-based political parties in the territory of RT. All these crises were perceived by population of the country and first of all population of Dushanbe extremely painfully, because life had taught that any military- political crisis destabilizes situation in the country in the most serious way, leads to aggravation of crime situation, and negatively affects the psychics of people, their moral and psychological condition. Yet, despite the dramatic nature of all these crises, an unbiased observer would be haunted by the feeling that they would not reverse the peace process but rather provide new impact. Each unresolved issue would clearly expose the weakest spots in the peace process, and would help concentrate efforts on eliminating reasons creating such weaknesses. For example, the crisis in January was extended by delays in reform of the government and in incorporating in it UTO representatives, in accordance with the 30% quota. The crisis showed: a lot of people in the country and abroad are trying to hinder the dialogue between the government and UTO. This situation made those who by one reason or another oppose UTO and the government accept the irreversibility of reform in the government. At the same time, the critical situations that took place after June 27, 1998, became a kind of school for joint efforts of the sides for solving these situations, search of compromise and solutions that would meet interests of not only the negotiating sides but mainly interests of the country and of the nation. Joint work of representatives of UTO and the government on solving crises had facilitated the deeper realization of core interests of the nation and their growing professionalism. It became noteworthy that in the course of solving a crisis the sides learned to find understanding and mutually- acceptable solutions independently, without mediators. It is only desirable that accomplishments of the last year were used by both sides, that the spirit of mutual understanding dominated their relations, that correctly- understood and realized interests of the country continued determine the nature and motivation of their deeds and actions. PS: On the eve of the first anniversary of signing of the Peace Agreement, head of state E.Rahmonov addressed the Parliament with the initiative for announcing a general amnesty in Tajikistan. It is expected that Majlisi Oli will adopt a decree on this subject at the nearest session.
Are we through with the war?
So: Shukurjon Zuhurov, Director, Center for Coordination of Projects for Post-Conflict Rehabilitation: In fact, signing of the General Agreement on peace had successfully completed the long inter-Tajik dialogue, during which the sides met 22 times. The official, legal end was put to the civil war in the Republic, which claimed dozens thousands lives. One of tragic pages of our history was turned over. Tajikistan lived through the year since signing of the agreement with no large war, except for minor conflicts. Even though that the agreement has not been implemented fully yet (on some parameters it is six months behind the schedule) we should work seriously on its implementation, and there is no other way for us. Full implementation of the agreement will create necessary political, legal, and security conditions for conducting parliamentary elections. Peace process in the country was highly estimated by international community. Evidence of that are the two conferences of donor countries held during this year, and creation of our Center - the result of the peace process in the country. General Mirzohuja Nizomov, commander of UTO armed formations in Karategin zone: I was among the first to sign the peace document (i.e. the Protocol signed by M.Nizomov and secretary of Security Council of RT A.Azimov on November 16, 1996 in Garm - A-P). The largest accomplishment of this year is that there was no "big war". The peace that we are restoring is the pearl that the people lost and had at last found again. There will be no more big war, I am sure. My meetings with Generals G.Mirzoyev, S.Kasymov and others confirmed my belief. Will distribution of property cause armed conflicts? No. Mujaheeds fought for ideas, not for material benefit. The rage of crime can be stopped when our fighters are integrated in power structures of the state, when the agreement on 30% quota is carried out. In general, the sooner we implement all articles of the General Agreement on Peace - the better. Otherwise, a third force might appear. Mahmadsaid Ubaidulloyev, Mayor of Dushanbe: In this crucial moment, when the Tajik nation was under threat of complete self-destruction, the prominent figure of Emomali Sharipovich Rahmonov appeared on the scene, to unite all healthy forces of the society, and to oppose national enmity. We all remember his oath at historical session in Khojand, when he promised to aim his every effort at achievement of peace and accord in Tajik land, return of refugees, and restoration of Constitutional structure. One year passed since the signing of the Agreement on Peace and National Reconciliation in Tajikistan. There is a large contribution of our president in it. We passed through bloodshed and tears of the civil war, and we learned to value peace. Now, I hope, we will prevent repetition of the bitter experience of the past (from speech at a meeting in Dushanbe on June 27). Otakhon Latifi, chairman of Coordination center of democratic forces in CIS: Signing of the peace agreement in RT is an unprecedented case in the world history. The main event of the year is probably return of the opposition to the Motherland and shift of the struggle to political means. The process of mutual forgiving goes parallel, which is very important and complicated. Unfortunately, time frame defined in the General Agreement is not observed. The reason to that is resistance of internal and external forces to the peace process. Are there opponents to reconciliation among opposition? Yes, there are, but not on the top level. Progress of peace in our country depends first of all on sincerity of the sides and mutual trust. With these, we can implement in time all articles of the Agreement and be ready for new parliamentary elections by beginning of next year. General Suhrob Kasymov, Commander of Special Brigade of Ministry of Internal Affairs of RT: The tasks of our brigade changed with establishment of peace in the Republic, even though so fragile. Now, we must struggle against illegal drugs trafficking, strengthen state borders, disarmament of illegal groups, which do not obey neither opposition nor the government. Since peace and arms are incompatible things, we see our objective in struggle against illegal possession of arms. I am sure that strong peace will be established in the country, and we will build the secular, legal, democratic state that we dream of. Atobek Amirbek, chairman of society La'li Badakhshon: Results of the first year inspire hope, most important is that distrust among people gradually disappears. It is important to solve issues of social security. For example, many people spent up to five years abroad, and probably they need to restore the interrupted work experience. I am confident that peace process is irreversible. Lieutenant-Colonel Faizali Langariyev, Commander, Infantry Battalion, Ministry of Defense of RT: To my mind, the peace process is threatened too often. Someone is probably interested in that. Evidence of that are the events in Kofarnihon in March and in Dushanbe in May. I believe that peace process, as result of efforts of the government and sober-minded people, is irreversible. And we will not let anyone interrupt it. International cooperation Businessmen of Germany and Tajikistan, unite!
Ilhom Jamoliyon, (A-P) Results of the first Forum of Tajik and German businessmen, that took place in the Republic in the beginning of June, inspire optimism Unprecedented in its importance - that is how many people in Tajikistan called the Tajik-German Forum of businessmen, that took place in Khojand and Dushanbe on June 20-25. Social and economic life in the Republic enters, even though slowly, its normal course. And this event, which was impossible last year, can be viewed as symbolic. It was organized, on Tajik side, by Agency on Support and Development of Small Business of the government of RT, and on German side - by Eastern-and- Central Europe Union of Germany and embassy of Germany in Tajikistan. It should be noted that the Forum took place mainly as result of initiativeness, energy and enthusiasm of Mr. Mathias Meyer, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Germany in RT. The Ambassador did not conceal that he had difficulty in persuading representatives of German business to visit Tajikistan, because they considered the country unstable and dangerous. By words of the representative of Federal Ministry of Economy of Federal Republic of Germany Mr. Peter Hartig, the level of economic relations between the two countries is not high compared to other countries of Central Asia, despite the fact that the relations were established a number of years ago. In 1997, for example, trade between Germany and RT amounted to DM 32 million, while in neighboring Uzbekistan it reached DM 1 billion. The principal organizer of the Forum - the East-and- Central Europe Union, formed by businessmen of Germany in 1989 specially for developing partner relations with Eastern Europe countries, succeeded to attract more than 20 German firms for participating in the Forum. Among them were representatives of renown commercial and industrial structures of Germany as Berliner Bank, the large German concern Krupp, UTEK Trading GMBH, Textima Export Import GMBH, Lipmir GMBH, etc. On Tajik side, the Forum was attended by about 200 firms. The numerous meetings and negotiations with Tajik partners in north of Tajikistan, Khojand, and later - in Dushanbe discussed various joint projects - on supply to Tajikistan of advanced technological equipment for processing of agricultural products, production and processing of water, refining oil, supply of ecologically-clean agricultural products to Germany, etc. Some of those meetings will yield their results very soon. For example, agreements were made between banking circles of the two countries, on creation of joint production of bicycles at company Bodom in Kanibadam, on re-equipment of company Kolinho in Kairakkum, on construction of beer brewery, and others. Even though not all protocols of intentions will be implemented soon, the other is important: German businessmen had seen that Tajikistan is not the country of endless acts of terrorism, that it is a promising country with favorable investment climate, with trained cadre, with large industrial and agricultural potential. At the closing ceremony, director of Tajik Agency for Support of Business Davron Yuldashev expressed hope that such forums will become a good tradition for Tajikistan and Germany, and that next year relations between business circles of the two countries will achieve a principally different level. In general, only one condition will determine that - complete peace in our country. Economy Energy Joint stock society Sangtuda: "Investment programs in energy industry of Tajikistan will bring it to international level". Zafar Abdulloyev (A-P) Development of Tajik hydro-energy industry is one of priority directions in the program of state investments of government of RT for 1998-2000. By estimation of an influential edition, the atlas of the world hydro-energy Hydropower & Dams, Tajikistan is the world leader on per capita resources of hydropower resources, and is on the eighth position on absolute indexes - 300 billion KWt/hour per year. Full use of the resources can make the Republic the largest exporter of electric power in the region. Despite availability of such significant resources, the Republic is suffering energy deficit (up to 600 mln KWT/h every year), especially in winter. The country is forced to compensate for this deficit by buying electricity at international prices (from $0.025 to $0.05 for each KWt/h) from neighboring republics - Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The issue of energy independence of Tajikistan becomes especially important now, because Tajikistan had to buy 304 million KWt/h from Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan in 1997. The problem of energy independence of the country, by opinion of experts of state company Barqi Tojik, can be resolved with commissioning of the Sangtuda station, construction of which started in 1989. The designed capacity of the station is 600 MWt/year, which would allow, at average production of 2,737 GWt/h, cover the annual deficit of electric power and begin export. A-P comment: The Sangtuda station is the fourth one in the Vakhsh cascade. Upon construction of the 75- meter dam, an artificial lake will form, with surface of 9.75 square km. Main equipment of the station consists of four turbines PO75/728-B-600 (167.5 MWt), two power transformers TS 400,000/500 and a generator CB-1260/185-60-UHL-4. Even though the Sangtuda station was declared a national construction, and the government of Tajikistan takes all measures for its soonest completion, the Republic is obviously not able to carry out such a large project by its own resources, without foreign investment. Cost of the station was estimated at $482.7 million, while only 20% of works have been completed by the moment. There is just one way out - finding large investor(s), willing to invest in Tajik hydropower industry. With this purpose, the Sangtuda station, by decree of the government of April 4, 1996, was transformed in a joint stock company Sangtuda. The starting capital of the company was $102 million, and after two emissions of shares it increased to $304 million. In accordance to the charter of the company, the shares are insured from inflation, and their price under any terms will not be below the starting price - $10. The project is already attracting interest of Russia, Iran, Italy, USA. They are attracted by obvious viability of the project - the projected production cost of one KWt/h at Sangtuda will be $0.0024 - 10-15 times lower than average world prices. At normal performance, the station will yield income of up to $100 million every year, which would allow pay back construction expenses in 4.2 years! Yet, despite all benefits, the socio-political instability in the country prevents investments in Tajik hydropower industry... Nevertheless, the government of Tajikistan invests additional resources in Sangtuda, so that the first generator begins work in 2001. The decree of the government of Tajikistan of June 15, 1998 on increase of capital investments in the economy determines that TR2.5 billion ($3.3 million) out of total of TR7.7 billion will be spent on this vital object.
Geology Work of geological expeditions of the country is under threat of closing. The decision of the government of RT on re-allocating all budget funds for alleviation of damage caused by recent natural disasters can affect the results of the beginning field season. Mountains of Tajikistan, occupying 93% of the territory of the country, contain almost all elements of periodic table of Mendeleyev. Based on the assumption that economy of any state is determined by its natural resources, our Republic should be among richest. In the Soviet period, when geology was one of leading sectors of economy, more than 450 deposits of mineral resources were discovered in the country: gold, silver, zinc, iron, lead, antimony, mercury, tungsten, etc. - altogether about 50 items. The all-union budget provided each year 60-70 million Rubles ($80-85 million) for exploration and extraction of mineral resources in Tajikistan. Works were carried out at more than 200 objects. The profession of geologist was then considered romantic and was well paid. Special institutions in Dushanbe, Moscow and Leningrad trained specialists for the industry. Alas, but the Republic is no more able to prepare qualified staff and to prevent them from leaving the country. The number of functioning objects in the country reduced from 200 to 30 in the last years. Main Administration for geology is not capable of supporting even the small staff which, despite all difficulties, remains loyal to their profession. The staff of about 10,000 shrunk to 2,000. Most geologists left the country. Those who are still working are paid about 10,000 Rubles (about $12). To earn their living, geologists have to take to additional work at other organizations - drill artesian wells in rural areas, build rail road Kurgon- Teppa - Kulob, etc. Alexander Ahmedov, deputy chief of Tajikglavgeologiya, says that the state budget funds only 25% of all geological works. In three years, the debt of the state to the industry reached TR91.2 million. In the last five months, geologists carried out works worth of TR56 million; only TR27 million were paid. Because of lack of funds, many categories of exploration works were interrupted, in particular deep-mine works. Annual budget of the industry is enough to develop one km of mines, while earlier 8-10 km were drilled. President E.Rahmonov in his speeches had many times described mining industry as one of priority sectors of national economy, capable of making significant input. It is on the base of the gold deposits explored by Tajik geologists in Panjakent that Tajik-British joint venture Zarafshon, Tajik-Canadian Aprelevka, others were created... Probably, this is the kind of situation where the circumstances are ruling. Even if geologists receive brilliant results this season and discover more promising deposits, the state would not have funds for their development, anyway, and investors are in no hurry to work in Tajikistan. So, let's face the facts: our country is steadily moving towards the status of a "banana republic". Unfortunately, without bananas. Statistics Socio-economic situation in Tajikistan (January-May, 1998) State Statistical Agency of the government of Tajikistan prepared report on socio-economic development of the Republic in five months of 1998. We offer for your attention its basic figures. Gross Domestic Product in January-May of 1998 is estimated at TR172,119,800,000. Compared to the same period of last year, its real volume increased by 1.3%. Gross Agricultural Product in this period by preliminary estimation reached TR34,730 million (in current prices), including crops - TR4,526 million and animal husbandry - 30,204 million. Total volume of agricultural product increased by TR90 million, or 0.3% compared to last year. Foreign trade in five months made $559 million, or 10% less than last year. By data of Customs Committee, declared export made $191 million, and import - $221 million. In January - April this year, the Republic maintained economic relations with 61 country; trade with CIS increased by 1%, and with non-CIS - reduced by 21%. Budget expenditures: consolidated budget on expenditures amounted to TR51,696.7 million, or 30% to GDP (31.4% to GDP in 1997) and 54.7% of updated quarterly plan. 20% of expenses were used to funding of socio-cultural activities; 18.8% - for foreign economic activity; 7.8% - to support law enforcement, court and prosecutor structures. Credit investments in economy, without credits to Ministry of Finance, amounted to TR18 billion by May 1, 1998. The share of long-term credits in total crediting reached 16.9%; short-term credits - 83.1%. Consumer market: retail trade in reporting period made TR109.9 billion. The largest share of trade was in Leninabad region - 37.4%; in Dushanbe - 34.1%; in Khatlon region - 21.3%; Districts of Republican Subordination (DRS) - 6.5%; MBAR - 0.7%. Transport: in five months, transport of general use carried 1,709,000 tons of cargo, with increase of 455,700 tons or 36.4% compared to last year. Passenger transportation by all categories of transport reached 555.3 million passenger/kilometers, which is 8.8% more than last year. Wholesale prices at enterprises - producers of basic goods reduced in May compared to April of 1998 by 0.6% (in 1997 prices grew by 38.2% in five months). Average monthly rate of inflation in consumer sector in the reporting period made 0.4% (compared to 6.9% last year). Cost of food products in consumer basket by actual consumption at prices of June 1, 1998 reached TR15,486 for one member of family, at rational norm of nutrition TR23,644. Average nominal wages in April of 1998 made TR7,607. Compared to April 1997, wages grew two times. The lowest wages in the sphere of material production are in agriculture, forestry, fish breeding - TR3,129, TR2,264, TR3,314. Highest wages are in industrial production - TR25,139, which exceeds average national index 3.3 times. In non-production sphere, the highest salaries are in sectors of finance and credits - average April salary made TR21,817. Official unemployment as of may 1, 1998 reached 55,700 and grew compared to the same period of last year by 21.2%. The level of official unemployment reached 3.1% of economically active population. Emergency situations: By information of Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, mud flows, mud slides and avalanches caused damage in amount of TR40.3 billion. The largest losses were inflicted in Khatlon region - TR22.1 billion, and in DRS - TR12.6 billion. Crime: 5,436 crimes were registered in five months of 1998, which is 4.3% less than last year. 3,196 cases were investigated (58.8%); only 31.7% were disclosed. The share of stealth in registered crime made 36.8%; out of that 84.7% - stealth of private property; 30% are burglaries. Growth of burglary is registered in Tursunzade - 1.7 times and in Dushanbe - by 6.1%. Drug- related crime increased by 13.8%. 19 persons were taken hostage (3.2 times increase compared to last year). Society World Bank will support reform of health care in Tajikistan Zafar Abdulloyev (A-P) With the purpose of assessment of the system of health care in Tajikistan, a special mission of World bank visited our Republic on June 8-20. Working meetings, held with management of Ministry of health and Ministry of Finance of the Republic, determined main directions in reform of this sector of Tajik economy and the role of the bank in this process. Head of the mission of World bank, chief economist in the sphere of social development Michael Mills said that "level of life in RT is higher than in other countries with similar level of gross national product. System of health care of the Republic is represented by quite well-developed network of medical institutions. Yet, the tendencies in this sector, related to collapse of economic links and the recent civil war, are of concern to us. The need arouse in radical reform in the medical system of the country". Experts of World bank, during their meetings with Tajik government, discussed six main directions in reform of health care in Tajikistan, to receive technical and financial assistance of the bank. According to the concept of the forthcoming reform, it is necessary to rationalize the resources of the health care system of RT and upgrade its financial management to international standards. The system of budget financing of public health care, which existed in Soviet Union, is outdated and does not meet requirements of time. Both sides came to agreement that the state is not able to provide the population with complete free medical service. That is why, at reform of health care in Tajikistan, the state will preserve the responsibility of free provision of basic medical services, in such fields like cardiology, oncology, gynecology and obstetrics, prevention and control of epidemics. Other services will be chargeable. Let's admit: in fact, such system has been working in Tajikistan for some time, and it only needs legalizing. At the same time, the practice of family doctors will develop, which proved well in many countries. With the purpose of strengthening institutional capabilities of the ministry itself, World bank will provide technical assistance to the ministry. Specialists of the Ministry will participate in international and specially-organized seminars in Dushanbe, will attend training on modern methods of health management. The special issue is the one of financing of medical services. According to the World Bank's strategy of assistance to Tajikistan, the bank will provide a credit of $5 million to support the system of health care. The limit of the funds is pre-determined by appearance of a new form of financing by the Bank - credits for training and innovations. Receiving such credits does not require approval by the Board of Directors of World Bank, which makes the access to this new type of financial resources. It should be noted that apart from World Bank, UN World health Organization and UNICEF, whose experts were members of the WB mission, will take part in the reform of health care in RT. Regions Unemployment in MBAR: A time bomb Shohnavruz Avzalshoyev (A-P) In Dushanbe, unemployed people do not want to take jobs because of low salaries; in Mountain Badakhshan people willing to work cannot find any jobs at all. A-P correspondent in Mountain Badakhshan Autonomous Region (MBAR) informed us of the current situation. The situation with employment in MBAR is very difficult. The number of unemployed grows from year to year. By information of the Regional Employment Center (REC), the official number of unemployed is at the moment 12,627; 1,619 out of them were added to the list in the last five months. That is 18% of labor resources of the region - the highest index in the Republic. Many factors added in creating such a situation. The main reason is idling of industrial enterprises and reduction of personnel at government organizations. Transforming of state collective farms into individual also contributed in the situation. In this situation, REC is trying to solve the problem at least partly. The center, since the beginning of the year, provided employment to 210 people, 197 more received employment with private structures, 80 people received aid totaling TR496,000 for development of individual farms. Courses were organized in Khorog, to teach new professions for 50 residents of the city. Head of REC Mamadnasim Gavkharov said that republican Social Security Fund provided TR2.6 million for financial support of unemployed in the region. That, of course, is not enough. According to a new program, REC is to find jobs for 3,643 people more before the end of 1998; most of these jobs will be at private farms. How realistic are these plans if less than 500 were employed in the first six months? The army of unemployed in MBAR will grow soon, because most of employees of idling enterprises were given long-term administrative leaves. By the latest data, about 7,500 people lost work by this reason since 1992. Most of them realize the limited possibilities of REC and gave up applying to the Center. Back in the Soviet time, MBAR had the highest rate of people with university education. Today, 235 engineers and teachers, 5,073 persons with technical education are unemployed, even though they are willing to work for benefit of the society. Most of unemployed are men, who have to support their families and to contribute in the economy of the country. So what is the way out of the situation? By opinion of Mamadnasim Gavharov, the idle enterprises should begin work first of all. At the same time, focus must be made on development of small and medium businesses, which would offer more employment. Special centers for professional training were opened with this purpose throughout the country, except for MBAR. Despite repeated requests of REC, no institution of this kind was established in MBAR. The proposal for creation of small enterprises at REC was not supported either. The funds allocated in the state budget were not provided yet. The region received only TR10 million out of planned TR40 million. Certainly, the country is in the state of crisis, but the issue of unemployment will have to be solved sooner or later. By solving this problem, the Tajik state would restore economy, improve level of life of population, and solve many other problems of the society. So far, situation with unemployment in MBAR is rather bleak. Thousands of unemployed represent a good soil for crime, including drug business, which is prospering in Tajikistan and in MBAR as part of it. Who is who Yahyo Azimov, Prime Minister of Republic of Tajikistan "Let people judge the results of our work!" Let's admit: we failed to write about Azimov as a human being, as we planned. During the conversation that lasted about two hours, Prime Minister would again and again turn the subject to the economic reform conducted by the government, to social problems faced by Tajikistan, to successes of his team, and plans that still are to implement. That made an impression that talking about himself was not interesting, and his main hobby is his work. So, we wrote what we heard. Last year, Yahyo Azimov celebrated his 50th birthday, and today is probably at the peak of his professional shape. He was born in Khojand in 1947, in an ordinary family; after graduating from school, he studied at Tashkent Textile Institute. Then, he worked at Uro- Teppa knitwear factory, and soon was appointed chief engineer. In 1975, the future premiere gets employment at carpet factory in Kairakkum (now - Kolinho Co.) and makes brilliant career. Azimov makes several steps up the administrative structure and becomes general director of the factory. Under his management, this enterprise, among the first in the Republic, changed its economic structure; after the destructive earthquake of 1985 it was rebuilt and renewed. Recognizing business abilities of the young leader, his colleagues elected him chairman of the Board of Directors, to protect in that difficult period the interests of powerful industry of the North. Yahyo Azimov was elected twice deputy of the parliament of the country. However, the peak of his career began two years ago - in February of 1996, when the President appointed him as Prime Minister. Probably, Emomali Rahmonov saw in this person the qualities that a premier should possess - a strong economist, a young and energetic businessman. With appointment of a new prime minister, the faltering economic reform gained new start. The structure of the government was reformed, a team was selected - young progressive economists - "technicians", and priorities in work were determined. The Republic first of all needed a strong legislative base for the reform. By words of Yahyo Azimov, the government team had to adopt up to 100 documents in a month - decrees of president, government decrees and resolutions, new laws. With great difficulty, the start was made. They succeeded in halting the decline in production, including agricultural, in 1996. In 1995- 1996 the cotton harvest was the lowest in the history - 316,000 tons! Neither the state nor the farms had the money for development of cotton industry. That is why, by initiative of Prime Minister, a new form of contracting was introduced - future deals, that is - payment and provision of fuel, spare parts and machines at the future harvest. That enabled the farms regain strength and accumulate turnover capital. By opinion of Azimov, those who vote for restoring state monopoly for cotton are people with obsolete thinking: "It was the state monopoly that brought the industry to such a pitiful state, when all government funds were abused without control! We tried to remove all bureaucratic obstacles and make producers owners of their produce". Now, producers were able to decide what was profitable and what was not. By giving people freedom for private initiative, and eliminating state monopoly, the government, by opinion of Azimov, created conditions for economic growth. It is not by chance that more than 8,000 private farms have been formed in the country by now. Could we imagine, quite recently, that we will have lowest prices for bread, while it was a scarcity a couple of years ago? That is why, Yahyo Azimov considers the greatest achievement of the reform the gradual changing of psychology of people, who understood that the state cannot give them everything. It is getting through to people, though slowly, that their well-being and prosperity of their economy depend on themselves. The Republic had moved forward on many indexes. And that is not a subjective opinion of Azimov but a fact confirmed by international financial organizations - International monetary Fund and World bank. It was not by chance that in May of 1996 Tajikistan received the first in its history tranche of the credit for program of economic reform, which was of extremely high importance. Inflation that reached index of 2000% in 1995 was reduced to 40% in 1996 (this year, it is planned to reduce rate of inflation to 17%). Foreign debt was about $900 million in 1996 (out of that, state debt was $600 million), and nobody knew how to repay the debt. In 1996, Azimov headed the works on creating a mechanism for return of credits and the old debts. Today, Republic is repaying old debts. "It is important that we agreed with many creditors on restructuring our debts on favorable terms. That is, there is a period of 3-5 years, in which Tajikistan would repay only the 2.8% interest on credits. In that period, Tajikistan must restore the national economy and begin repayment of older debts during the following 10-15 years. Prime Minister operates figures with ease, and by official statistics economy is indeed on the increase. What about real life? When will people feel improvement in their life? "Everybody knows that Tajikistan suffered losses of many billion in the civil war, - says Azimov. - Restoration is very difficult. We think that the nearest three years are crucial. This year should be a kind of transition year, after which improvement will begin (and indeed, everything went well in the first quarter). But the nature tests us again and again. In spite of that, the level of life will be improving now. In these two years, salaries were increased several times, and we increased pensions recently again. I realize that is a miserable increase, but pensioners get their pension in time, and the state is not in debt on pension. That is progress already! The last thing we have to do is that we will submit a principally new tax code to the autumn session of the parliament. We cannot and we don't want promise everyone an apartment by some date, as Soviet leaders usually did, or life in Communism, etc. It is most important that we create equal conditions for improvement of life to everyone. Though, we would rather let other people judge our work". Prime Minister clearly distances from politics, saying that everyone should stick to his business. Besides, Azimov said that he simply does not have time for politics, with the intensive economic reform. At the same time, many independent observers believe that probably a "gentlemen's agreement" was made between President Rahmonov and Premiere Azimov in the very start: head of state would take care of the block of political issues of the state and allows prime minister complete freedom in economic reform,, while the premiere in turn carries out economic reform independently (with strong support of the president), but does not involve in politics. Whatsoever, the duet Rahmonov-Azimov has been working smoothly and without faults until now. That cannot be said in regard of previous prime ministers... Will the agreement on the 30% quota affect Premier Azimov, his team, the economic system that was created through such effort? The changes in cadre, as it is known, are the responsibility of the President. Yahyo Azimov is prepared to continue work as prime minister, and does not confirm the rumor about his transfer to another position. As for the quota of the opposition, defined in the Agreement on peace, prime Minister thinks that each position must be occupied by professionals, no matter which political force they belong to. Only then, the country can be led out of dead end, and people can be given normal and decent life. Yahyo Azimov himself had become a member of the "party of power" - People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan. Why? Because, by his own definition, he works in the "team of Rahmonov". Prime Minister does not consider himself a rich person and does not have accounts in foreign banks. "My wealth is my knowledge and experience!". These qualities, probably, will help him work in new capacity - a businessman or a head of some enterprise - when the time comes to leave the position of premiere... Yahyo Azimov has three children - two daughters and a son. His elder child is an institute student. His wife works at school. In his free time, Azimov reads special economic literature. Now, he studies the history of the state of Samanids : "Who does not know his own history he does not have a future". He likes sports but is always too short of time. In this situation, a set of sports equipment at home is of help. His bad habits is smoking (Marlboro). On holidays, he would drink good wine. PS: Throughout the conversation, Yahyo Azimov kept glancing at his watch. Time was about nine in the evening. I thought that he is thinking of catching another meeting, but he explained that at that time, overseas, the Board of Directors of IMF was discussing provision (or refusal) of the credit of $128 million for the three-year program of economic reform. When this information was prepared for publishing, it was already known that the Board of Directors approved the $128 million credit to Tajikistan. The first tranche of $49 million - for alleviation of the disaster damage and support of the national currency - will come to Tajikistan this year. Umed Babakhanov (A-P) * * * We will be glad to receive your offers and comments by:
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