In the Georgian region of Kvemo-Kartli, Mikheil Saakashvili seems destined to capture a large majority of votes in the January 5 special presidential election. His campaign posters far outnumber those of his main challenger, united opposition candidate Levan Gachechiladze, and few people can be found in this predominately ethnic Azeri region that will say anything negative to about Saakashvili.

“He's a great man. He built roads, increased our pensions and put the bandits in prison,” said Valeyeva Baxcha, who sells vegetables at the bazaar in the Marneuli District. Baxcha stands next to a pile of burning trash, trying to stay warm.

While Kvemo-Kartli is now well linked to the capital Tbilisi by railway and a repaved highway, it remains one of the poorest regions in the country with about three-quarters of the regional population living in poverty and with a double-digit unemployment rate. Once a mining and industrial center, today regional residents primarily rely on agriculture to generate income, with many depending heavily on produce cultivated in private gardens.

“When Misha was elected president (in 2004) and spoke Azeri to us, we thought ‘Ah, this man will help us,’ but there is absolutely no work, nothing has improved in four years; the rich have gotten richer and the poor have gotten poorer,” claimed united opposition activist Kasham Kaviev.

Kaviev attributes Saakashvili's large popularity among the Azeri population to fear, a feature inherited from 70 years of Soviet ideology. “We follow like sheep,” he explained.

The Marneuli District was the scene of heavy voter fraud and other electoral violations during the 2003 parliamentary elections, an event that sparked the Rose Revolution. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. For some, the possibility of voting irregularities remains a concern. Local election committee board member, Rafael Xalilov is one of the few people in the region who readily criticizes Saakashvili publicly. He fears that the January 5 vote will be clouded by contention, claiming that voter registration lists were not posted at two polling precincts as they should have been.

“Why aren't there voter lists if Saakashvili didn't want to steal the elections?” Xalilov asked. However, CEC advisor Carmen Morales assured that the voter lists had been posted by late January 3, before the mandated deadline. Hussein Askyerov, a united opposition activist confirmed that the polling stations were up and functional on January 4, with lists.

Xalilov and others claim that Gachechiladze posters are torn down as soon as they go up, and also claim that representatives of the Saakashvili-led National Movement passed out gifts of sugar, flour, wine and vouchers for gas and electricity as New Year's gifts. This could not be verified by the National Movement.

Xalilov said he grew disillusioned with Saakashvili when the president shut down the main bazaar, as part of an anti-corruption campaign in 2004. Xalilov said that when he saw land privatization deals favor Georgian farmers and his language rights being violated, he became a firm opposition supporter. For him, Gachechiladze's intention to establish a parliamentary republic means that Kvemo-Kartli’s Azeri population will have a voice in the central government.

Meanwhile, some locals, like English teacher Bakran Kurbanuv, cannot say what Gachechiladze's platform is. “We have no information about him,” Kurbanuv says. His motives for voting for Saakashvili however, are clear.

“Before Misha, [there existed] anarchy here. He has established a budget, an economy. Real political changes have taken place under his leadership. He has done what he said he would do,” stated the English teacher.