By Molly Corso: 12/20/07

While domestic and international audiences are busy scrutinizing Georgia’s upcoming January 5 presidential vote, little attention has yet been paid to plebiscites planned for the same day on a parliamentary election date and Georgia’s accession into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

In part, that lack of attention reflects official attitudes.

The date of the parliamentary elections was one of opposition leaders’ key demands during the November 2-7 Tbilisi demonstrations that ended in a sharp crackdown.

Former President Mikheil Saakashvili had proposed holding the plebiscites in parallel with early presidential elections in a gesture to calm political tensions following the breakup of the protests and the declaration of a state of emergency. A plebiscite – in contrast to a referendum – is a non-binding expression of popular will.

But in Georgian politics, conflicts change fast. In 2006, the ruling United National Movement Party fought successfully to have the constitution changed to move the elections back from the spring of 2008 to the fall of 2008. It remained opposed to further changes.

Now, according to Davit Bakradze, state minister for conflict resolution and Saakashvili’s campaign spokesperson, the government no longer has any “difficulty” over the date of the parliamentary election.

Bakradze states that the government’s original desire to avoid holding parliamentary elections in spring 2008 stemmed from a deep-rooted concern over the “indirect influence” of the Russian presidential elections – also slated for the spring – and the perceived likelihood that “outside forces” would attempt to manipulate Georgia’s conflicts with breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia following a decision on the status of Kosovo.

“The snap presidential elections changed the entire attitude,” he said, noting that the new president will now have a “strong enough mandate” to address any threats. “[We] don’t have any difficulty with the date of the elections.”

Georgian politicians put rhetoric aside on December 19 and – 17 days before the election – decided on the wording for the country’s two planned plebiscites. While observers had been concerned with the government’s original proposal for the parliamentary election plebiscite, both sides now seem satisfied with the compromise.

A plebiscite must be answered with a “yes” or “no” response. For reasons that are not entirely clear, however, the government’s original proposal did not use that answer format, but instead asked voters to choose between elections in autumn or spring 2008.

The new version, which was decided by the Central Election Commission, reads: “ Do you agree that the parliament election should be held in the spring of 2008?”

“I think the [new version] is quite correct and quite understandable,” commented Eka Siradze-Delaunay, program manager at the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED. Siradze-Delaunay noted that for stakeholders in the pre-election process, the “main issue was…how it [the question] would be formulated.”

Davit Usupashvili, a leader of the Republican Party – one of the nine members of the United National Opposition Council backing candidate Levan Gachechiladze – told EurasiaNet that the opposition is also pleased with the new wording. “The final wording which the CEC approved yesterday was the wording that we, the opposition, suggested to [Acting President Nino] Burjanadze two weeks ago,” he said. “The original version that Saakashvili formulated was just misleading and complicated. Now we are satisfied.”

Saakashvili campaign spokesperson Bakradze adds that the government’s agreement to the opposition’s plebiscite wording was a “good will gesture.”

While the parliamentary election date plebiscite now appears non-controversial, the NATO plebiscite is widely seen as even more of a foregone conclusion. In a voter survey prepared for the International Republican Institute in the fall of 2007, nearly 50 percent of the respondents were in favor of joining NATO. Another 33 percent indicated “probably yes,” while only a scant 6 percent were definitely against joining the alliance.

ISFED’s Siradze-Delaunay concedes that “[m]aybe too much attention is being paid to the presidential elections,” but terms the disbalance “understandable.” If the plebiscites were held at a different date, she said, the case would be different.

But, for now, public interest in the plebiscites is running close to nil. “No one has told me anything about them,” commented Gayanne, a middle-aged housekeeper on her way to work in downtown Tbilisi. “I don’t know anything [about them].”

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Editor's Note: Molly Corso is a freelance reporter based in Tbilisi.