EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Georgian daily says infighting under way in separatist Abkhazia

EURASIA INSIGHT

GEORGIAN DAILY SAYS INFIGHTING UNDER WAY IN SEPARATIST ABKHAZIA
7/12/07
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from BBC Monitoring

There is a "serious confrontation" between clans within the separatist Abkhaz government, the Georgian newspaper 24 Saati has said. The paper stressed that the struggle is under way between the clan of former separatist leader Vladislav Ardzinba supported by vice-president Raul Khadzhimba on one side and the clan represented by de facto president Sergey Bagapsh and prime minister Aleksandr Ankvab on the other. The paper linked the recent attempt on Ankvab’s life to this confrontation, saying that the government is "on the brink of a split". The following is excerpt of report by Levan Ghirsiashvili in Georgian newspaper 24 Saati on 10 July headlined "It is now a matter of who strikes first. Clan struggle in Abkhazia"; subheadings as published:

Another attack on the separatist Abkhaz prime minister [Aleksandr Ankvab] was carried out yesterday [9 July]. Aleksandr Ankvab was taken to hospital but his life is not in danger and he is going to return to work within the next few days. The Abkhaz separatist leader [Sergey Bagapsh] has indirectly accused Tbilisi of attempting to kill Ankvab. Other members of Bagapsh’s government have also accused the Georgian special services of attacking Ankvab. Of course, they are interested in this, more precisely, they have to say this aloud.

The fourth attack on Ankvab, however, has confirmed once again that there is an internal clan confrontation among the separatists. The Sukhumi government is on the brink of a split. This suspicion is further supported by the fact that so-called vice-president Raul Khadzhimba, who is considered to be a patron of the Ardzinba [last name of former Abkhaz separatist leader Vladislav Ardzinba] clan, has not yet made an official comment. Nevertheless, what is happening in the Sukhumi government?

What does the fourth attempt to remove Ankvab mean and what events could unfold?

[Passage omitted citing Bagapsh, who accuses "certain groups" of carrying out an attack against Ankvab]

Ankvab against Ardzinba clan

Representatives of Vladislav Ardzinba’s clan had especially complicated relations with prime minister Aleksandr Ankvab. This confrontation existed as early as before Ankvab’s departure for Moscow. He left Abkhazia and moved his business to Moscow precisely because of this confrontation. Under Ardzinba, Ankvab established a public-political movement Aitaira (Revival) which became one of the significant opposition forces to Ardzinba’s government. Effectively, Aitaira and veterans’ organization Amtsakhara became the backing with which Bagapsh managed to defeat [in the presidential election] Ardzinba’s "heir" [incumbent vice president] Raul Khadzhimba.

A large part of business in Abkhazia, however, remained in the hands of Ardzinba’s clan. Depriving the Ardzinbas of its business became Bagapsh’s and Ankvab’s number one task as soon as they came to power.

[Passage omitted on background information]

Ardzinba’s response moves

The Ardzinbas’ main supporter in Bagapsh’s government is vice-president and former KGB official Raul Khadzhimba himself. It can be said that, initially, he failed to resist in any serious way to the oppression of the Ardzinba clan and, correspondingly, to the strengthening of the Bagapsh-Ankvab clan. The fact that Khadzhimba enjoyed quite strong support from the Russian special services circles at the time was confirmed by the meeting between [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and Khadzhimba as early as before Bagapsh’s becoming the president.

At the time, the Russian president openly expressed his support for Khadzhimba and even imposed a mandarin blockade on the Abkhaz population in order to weaken Bagapsh. Of course, the situation changed radically later on. However, Khadzhimba’s vice presidential post confirms that he enjoys the support from the Russian special services to this day. Correspondingly, the Ardzinba clan’s gamble on Khadzhimba has not changed to this day either.

Khadzhimba too took certain steps in order to consolidate the trust from the Moscow patrons and the Ardzinbas and against the Bagapsh-Ankvab duo. Specifically, in April 2007, separatist leader Sergey Bagapsh got poisoned in a suspicious situation that is still unclear. It is noteworthy that, at the time, he was going to pay a visit to Turkey where a meeting with the Abkhaz diaspora had been scheduled and was supposed to result in the beginning of their gradual repatriation to Abkhazia.

In Abkhazia, however, where the Abkhaz already represent an ethnic minority, the return of the diaspora would considerably change the demographic situation which certainly was not in the interests of Moscow and the Russian special services in particular. Precisely after this poisoning, when Sergey Bagapsh went to Moscow for treatment, vice president Raul Khadzhimba, aiming to weaken the Bagapsh-Ankvab clan, started taking effective steps. Khadzhimba delivered his first blow on the Sukhumi mayor’s office where financial violations were discovered. As a result, Sukhumi mayor Astamur Adleyba, one of Bagapsh’s reliable supporters, left his post.

The creation of Aruaa, an organization to counterbalance Amtsakhara, can be called the second step taken by the Ardzinbas and Khadzhimba. Foreign minister Sergey Shamba’s friend, [general] Vladimir Arshba, became its leader. Even though Sergey Shamba remains an independent player to this day (he has his own patrons in Moscow), at this stage, he can be considered Raul Khadzhimba’s ally in the business of weakening Bagapsh and Ankvab.

At the same time, new TV channel, Abaza-TV, has been created in Abkhazia. It is funded by Beslan Butba, businessman and former MP (one of the active members of the opposition bloc). The aforementioned TV channel will be a serious competitor to the state TV and will work to satisfy the interests of the opposition bloc.

In addition, with the support from the Ardzinba clan, a union of press journalists and publicists called Freedom and Will was created. It united journalists supporting the opposition.

Finally, a congress of the Armenian diaspora was held where one leader, [Garegin] Kazaryan, who is in opposition to Bagapsh’s government, was elected (the Armenian organization used to have three co-chairmen in the past]. It is noteworthy that control over the Armenian diaspora is important for any Abkhaz political force in order to win elections because the number of the Armenian population exceeds the number of other ethnic groups living in Abkhazia.

The Ardzinba clan, which has already gained strength, delivered its first blow on the Bagapsh-Ankvab clan as early as in June. They moved on to the strong-arm methods. Specifically, an antitank mine detonated near the entrance to Akhali Atoni from the Gudauta side on 21 June. On 27 June, representatives of the Abkhaz intelligentsia and Sergey Bagapsh made a statement that it was a terrorist attack planned against Aleksandr Ankvab and forces opposing him tried to carry it out (the mine was accidentally detonated by a lightening strike). And finally, yesterday’s terrorist attack whose aim, once again, was Bagapsh’s main backing Aleksandr Ankvab.

Questions without answers

Everything that was said above clearly indicates that quite a serious confrontation prevails within the Abkhaz separatist government. This is first and foremost linked to the spheres of income and business distribution. The fourth attempt to eliminate Ankvab should be considered precisely in this context. However, precisely this "fourth" one raises suspicions and a logical question: why none of the attacks has succeeded? Is it not possible that at least the last one, if not all four, was instigated precisely by the Bagapsh-Ankvab clan and serves to prepare the public opinion and to start decisive actions?

However, the events that will unfold in Abkhazia in the nearest future will answer these questions. If this attack was staged by the clan of Ankvab himself, very soon, Bagapsh should receive absolute carte blanche in the separatist government. If, however, this indeed was the fourth unsuccessful attack and Ankvab remained its target, those who staged it will think about rectifying their mistake. The main thing is who will strike first.

Editor�s Note: Source: 24 Saati, Tbilisi, in Georgian 10 Jul 07, p 1,3

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