Did Richard Holbrooke get ahead of himself when he said the basing agreement for the Manas Air Base/Transit Center was going to be renewed?
Here's what he said (sic):
In the case of Kyrgyzstan, which doesn’t have a common border with Afghanistan – the very important Manas Transit Center, which will be – which we will renew the arrangements some in the next few weeks, and I wanted to launch that process.
That seemed to presuppose the outcome of the negotiations a little more than the Kyrgyz government was comfortable with, and they pushed back a little. Said Kyrgyzstan's foreign minister, Kadyrbek Sarbaev:
"The government of the republic signed no agreement on the renewal of Manas Transit Center lease at the territory of Kyrgyzstan with Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke during his visit in Bishkek."
Still, as Ferghana.ru suggests:
On the other hand, it is hard to believe that Kyrgyzstan is not going to keep the base after June, 2010. It has to be mentioned that the agreement assumes automatic prolongation for another year "if neither of the parties informs another party about its decision to break the agreement 180 prior to the end of the agreement’s term."
Meanwhile, the U.S. embassy in Bishkek is also dealing with suspicions that the planned anti-terror training center in Batken is going to be a base of some sort:
"The United States does not have and does not seek to obtain a military base in Kyrgyzstan's south," an embassy spokesman said while addressing last week's reports in a variety of internet publications that the United States had agreed with Kyrgyz authorities on construction of an anti-terrorist training center in the Batken Region.
The spokesman said the U.S. government had allocated $5.5 million for the training center, whose construction is to be launched next year, but stressed that it would be owned by the Kyrgyz government and will be used for training Kyrgyz soldiers.
Whatever the facility is, it looks like it will be in an increasingly volatile area. EurasiaNet reports today:
The deteriorating relationship between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan is giving rise to violence along the countries’ shared frontier. Adding to the tension, Tashkent has unilaterally closed one of the largest border crossings between the two countries....
Trouble began escalating early in 2010. On January 17 in the Jalalabad District, for example, Uzbek soldiers shot a Kyrgyz frontier guard and held him prisoner for six days. In recent weeks, incidents have grown more frequent. Helping to fuel the confrontational mood is the fact that roughly 20 percent of the 1,375-long border has not been clearly defined.
On March 1, Kyrgyz border guards in Jalalabad Province detained four Uzbek shepherds, accusing them of crossing the border illegally. One of the detainees escaped while the remaining three were questioned by Kyrgyz National Security Service agents. Three days later, on March 4, according to local press reports, Kyrgyz frontier guards shot and killed an Uzbek citizen and wounded another in Batken Province.
A Russian base, an American "anti-terror training center," and border skirmishes? I think we'll be seeing more from here soon...
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.