Trying to figure out what is going on with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization always requires a bit of tea-leaf reading and Kremlinology, given that the organizations who most reliably report on the group tend to be the state-owned media of the member countries. My experience covering one of the SCO summits (in Bishkek in 2007) made clear just how opaque the group is.
That said, there has been a spate of stories this week discussing Pakistan's potential membership in the group. The foreign minister of Uzbekistan is visiting Pakistan, and Uzbekistan -- chair of the SCO this year -- supports Pakistan's membership. This analysis suggests that membership for Pakistan is likely:
Will Pakistan be accepted into the SCO? It all depends on Russia. There is not other opposition in the group. Russia on previous occasions has demanded Bharat’s inclusion along with that of Pakistan. Bharat however is not longer interested in the SCO, and Delhi’s relations with Moscow have soured. So Islamabad may soon become a member of the SCO. The SCO is considering the membership applications of Iran and Pakistan. While there is much discussion of Iran on the agenda, whose absorption into the regional grouping would be seen as a provocative step, there is almost no opposition to the membership of Pakistan.
What might Pakistani membership mean? Not clear, given that it's still not clear exactly what the group is supposed to be doing. Is it a military bloc, or an economic cooperation group, or a cultural exchange forum (or a floor wax, or a dessert topping...)
One of the SCO's savviest observers, Alexander Cooley, says the group is "stagnant," given the diverging interests of its two leaders, Russia and China, and it's hard to disagree. But then why do countries keep trying to join? (Iran, too, keeps trying to join -- remember, Ahmedinejad went to last year's summit in Russia just a couple of days after the disputed election in Iran.) They must believe that the group has some potential influence, even if it's not yet apparent.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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