Gallup has done a new survey of the non-NATO former Soviet countries, and found that in only one -- you get one guess which -- did more than 40 percent believe NATO to be a "protection" of their country. Yes, it was Georgia, where 56 percent of people believed NATO to be protecting their country. Azerbaijanis were the next most favorably disposed toward NATO, with 38 percent seeing it as protection, followed by Turkmenistan (36 percent), Uzbekistan (31), Moldova (30), Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan (25), Armenia (22) and Tajikistan (18). Ukraine, Belarus and Russia saw NATO even less favorably.
Apparently, most of the people in these countries see NATO refracted through the lens of their regional security issues, especially NATO member Turkey and NATO bugaboo Russia. The pollsters write:
Views about NATO across the rest of the CIS region are largely defined in terms of a country's relations with Russia and its citizens' sociocultural ties. Historically, Tajikistan has been oriented both toward its neighboring countries that share the Persian language (Iran and Afghanistan) and toward Russia, on which it depends for security and labor migration. The wars in Iran and Afghanistan, as well as Russia's constant hidden or open opposition to the United States, may influence Tajikistanis' views of NATO--and hence the organization's relatively low average protection rating of 9 percent. It is interesting to note, however, that the percentage of Tajikistanis who associate NATO with protection rose significantly between 2008 and 2009--from 5 percent to 18 percent--and potentially reflects their increased level of approval of the new US leadership (30 percent in 2008 versus 42 percent in 2009).
In Azerbaijan, a move toward modernization and integration into the world economy helps explain the relatively high 36 percent of residents who associate NATO with the protection of their country and the 9 percent who perceive it as a threat. Baku is moving toward closer ties with Turkey, an important and strong NATO member with which Azerbaijan has cultural and linguistic connections. Furthermore, Azerbaijan's economy is growing quickly because of energy projects that are in opposition to Moscow's interests--for example, the Baku-Jeykhan oil pipeline. The North-Atlantic Alliance's activity in the Middle East to constrain political Islam may also contribute to the stability of nearby secular Azerbaijan.
Similar to Azerbaijanis, more than one-third of Turkmen (36 percent) associate NATO with the protection of their country, while 7 percent say it is a threat. Long-isolated Turkmenistan has traditionally had a close relationship with Russia but in recent years has reached out to the West and NATO. A few months before Gallup's survey, Turkmen-Russian relations suffered when a pipeline connecting the two countries exploded and each side pointed fingers at the other. The fallout between the two allies may help explain the relatively high protection rating.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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