The interim government in Kyrgyzstan has a daunting list of challenges, says a new report on the recent uprising by the International Crisis Group. "A Hollow Regime Collapses," chronicles the unraveling of Kurmanbek Bakiyev's corrupt, nepotistic regime and presents a warning. The events in Kyrgyzstan - "a case study of the risks facing authoritarianism in Central Asia" - should present a lesson to the country's neighbors.
[T]he authoritarian model of government has not worked in Kyrgyzstan, and is unlikely in the long run to work in the rest of Central Asia. Its superficial stability is attractive to Western leaders who are looking for a safe environment to pursue commercial or security interests, such as the current effort to prosecute the war in Afghanistan. But the deep-seated and invisible instabilities of authoritarian regimes remove all predictability. A well-defended government, seemingly without a coherent challenge from its political opponents and apathetic populace, can be swept away in a day. By blocking all social safety valves – the media, public dissent, political discourse and the right to legal redress – the Bakiyev regime created a semblance of calm. But it was unable to control the underground currents of anger at the regime’s rapacity. The closure of all other channels of change made a violent response just about the only option for an angry population.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.