Looking for the latest inside information on defense and security in Kazakhstan and Central Asia? Look no further than business intelligence outfit Business Monitor International, which just released its new report, Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report Q3 2010. The press release announcing its publication starts out:
The key recent development in Central Asia is the overthrow of the government in Kyrgyzstan.
Hard to argue with that. But I happened to get my hands on the Q2 report, published in February, before I started on this trip, and stumbled across the following bit of trenchant analysis:
[W]e expect the same structures that have helped mitigate any significant opposition to Bakiyev’s regime to help further consolidate power, and as a result, we hold to our core view that Bakiyev will remain as president over the foreseeable future.
D'oh! Probably this is why, in the release announcing the new report, it's noted that "the regime change, when it occurred, was quite unexpected."
The cost of the Q3 report: $530.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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