Rethinking Turkish-Western Relations: A View from Washington

The German Marshall Fund's Ian Lesser, one of the more sober minded Turkey analysts out there, has a new report out that tries to chart a future course for Turkey's relations with the West. From his report: 

Expert and media commentary suggests that Turkey is becoming an exotic place, a country out of the transatlantic mainstream, pursuing an increasingly assertive and independent policy on the marches of Europe. In this sense, the fashionable controversy over “neo-Ottomanism” is actually a two-way street, reinforced by a revival of very old ideas about Turkey’s geopolitics. It is too easy by far to see the Gaza flotilla crisis and Turkey’s “no” vote on Iran sanctions as straightforward
confirmation of a Turkish drive to the Muslim East. Recent events underscore some striking changes in Turkish society and policy, and these will not make for an easy relationship between Turkey and its European and North American partners. The roots of this friction are diverse, with a strong nationalist component. Yet, important avenues for cooperation remain open and may expand even as traditional patterns wane. The new Turkish-Western relationship will be a la carte, and driven by convergent national interests rather than amorphous notions of geopolitics and identity. It could still be a rough ride.