The notion that the Northern Distribution Network will turn in to a "modern Silk Road" appears to be gaining momentum among U.S. policymakers. First General Petraeus is behind it, now top State Department officials, like Robert Blake, the assistant secretary for South and Central Asian affairs, are talking it up:
Uzbekistan is already playing a vital role in international efforts to confront violent extremists in Afghanistan. It has provided much-needed electricity to Afghanistan, undertaken infrastructure projects in Afghanistan such as the rail line to Mazar-e-Sharif, and facilitated the transport of non-lethal supplies into Afghanistan via the Northern Distribution Network.
Indeed the Northern Distribution Network has the potential to improve transportation infrastructure and stimulate trade routes connecting Central Asia to the growing markets of South Asia, which would have a lasting economic benefit.
Uzbekistan weathered the global economic downturn well and continues to have solid economic growth. Uzbekistan grew by 9% in 2008 and 8.1% in 2009. Since Uzbekistan's independence, U.S. firms have invested roughly 500 million U.S. dollars in Uzbekistan. And I believe there is room for much more.
In addition to the question of whether Afghanistan makes sense as a trade route, there is another obvious roadblock to this idea: The U.S. is supposed to start its withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan in about a year. The Asian Development Bank's ambitious plan for a "New Silk Road" is going to take more than ten years. Given that the NDN's demonstrable effect on Central Asian infrastructure thus far is a 75-mile stretch of railroad, what more is going to be accomplished in a year?
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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