Before international donors and local officials gather tomorrow to discuss a financial aid package for Kyrgyzstan, one figure is already getting attention: $1 billion. Yep, the damage from the recent violence and political turmoil, and subsequent economic collapse, cost exactly a billion, says newly appointed Senior Vice Prime Minister Amangeldi Muraliev.
But Muraliev did not pull that number out of thin air. The sonorous figure is floating around the international donor community and is expected to be center stage during the July 27 donor conference in Bishkek.
“The preliminary assessment for the country’s needs … are about $1 billon,” said a Bishkek-based source at one of the major multilateral donor organizations.
Kyrgyzstan certainly has huge financial hurdles ahead. The World Bank estimates the country’s GDP, on track to grow 4.5 percent before the April uprising, will actually shrink by 3.5 percent in 2010.
It will be interesting to see how the government itemizes its request, and how donors respond. Kyrgyzstan ranks in the top 20 most corrupt countries worldwide by Transparency International. So far, the UN, in its most recent revised flash appeal, has sought just under $100 million.
Kazakhstan has already stepped up, Muraliev gratefully acknowledged, with a whopping $10 million (along with some bags of wheat). But the OSCE chair may wish to consider what else it can do. Some Kyrgyz economists are calculating how much Astana hurt the Kyrgyz economy by shutting its borders for over a month after the April 7 uprising.
Moreover, the Asian Development Bank has also pledged almost $150 million to reconstruct Osh. Many there are concerned the money will be used to fulfill Mayor Melisbek Myrzakmatov’s plan to replace Uzbek neighborhoods with high-rise apartments.
David Trilling is Eurasianet’s managing editor.
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