Armenia: Opposition Blasts Russia’s Proposed 49-Year Lease on Military Base

Russian soldiers participate in a training exercise near the village of Tatarka in February 2009. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev plans to visit Armenia next week to sign a deal that would double the term of deployment of Russian military bases in Armenia to 49 years. (Photo: Danil Semyonov/Getty Images)

Plans to grant Russia a 49-year lease on its base in Armenia have sparked heated opposition criticism of the Armenian government for allegedly selling short the country’s independence. The agreement is expected to be signed next week during Russian President Dmitri Medvedev’s state visit to Yerevan on August 19.

“Our country’s authorities say ‘yes’ to everybody; they accept every offer opposing the national interests,” fumed Stepan Safarian, leader of the National Assembly’s tiny Heritage Party faction. “In this case, Russia’s oversight and influence in the region once again get bigger, despite [Armenia’s] national interests.”

The agreement on deploying a Russian military base in the northern Armenian town of Gyumri was signed 15 years ago and entered into force two years later, in 1997, for a period of 25 years.

Interfax reports that the Russian government in July proposed amending the agreement to 49 years; the lease would automatically renew for another five years if neither side calls for its cancellation six months before the end of that period. In addition to “defense of Russia’s interests,” the Gyumri base “would also ensure the security of Armenia jointly with the Armenian armed forces,” the proposed amendment reads. “Modern and compatible arms and specialized military equipment,” are also promised.

Speaking on public television on August 5, National Security Council Secretary Arthur Baghdasarian dismissed objections to the proposed changes. Russia’s military presence in Armenia may be intended to defend Russian interests, he conceded, but as Armenia’s “military and strategic ally,” Russia “undertakes the protection of our country together with the Armenian armed forces.”

Armenia is a “sovereign state, it has its armed forces and all the facilities to ensure its security,” and “only welcomes an intensification of bilateral cooperation” with Russia, affirmed Baghdasarian.

Many local analysts and opposition politicians counter that the deal does not meet Armenia’s need of being able to chart a foreign policy course that reflects its own interests.

“Armenia has no right to decide; others are making decisions on Armenia’s behalf,” asserted Ruben Mehrabian, a political analyst at Yerevan’s Armenian Center for Political and International Studies. “[O]nly Russia’s interests are dominating in these decisions, while Armenia’s interests are secondary. . . Armenia is just an object for accomplishing these [Russian] interests.”

Russia’s heavy economic presence in Armenia – a source of suspicion for many Armenians – could well influence those misgivings. Russian companies control Armenia’s energy system, mining and petrochemical sectors as well as hold substantial investments in its telecommunications industry.

Political scientist Alexander Iskandarian, director of the Caucasus Institute, though, sees the proposed lease extension as more of a strategic balancing act. Iskandarian calls the deal another attempt by Russia to maintain balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan, by sending a “special message to Turkey and Azerbaijan.”

Following the frontline shooting deaths of four Armenians and one Azerbaijani in mid-June, Armenian worries about a resumption of full-fledged fighting with Azerbaijan have multiplied. Unconfirmed recent news reports about Russia’s alleged sale of S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Baku have added to the unease.

To mobilize opponents of the lease extension, one leading member of the opposition Republic Party has formed a Facebook group called “Armenia without Russian Military Bases” that features a modest membership made up of journalists, various cultural figures and political analysts.

“Russia is trying to keep the Karabakh issue and the authorities under its control,” argued the group’s creator, Suren Surenyants, a senior member of the Republic Party. “These are preventive measures for maintaining the status quo. And this means Armenia will again remain as an outpost country.”

A spokesperson for Armenia’s largest opposition group, the Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by ex-President Levon Ter Petrosian, told EurasiaNet.org that he saw no reason for the lease extension, but stated that the ANC will comment on the agreement more extensively once it sees the document.

The public reaction to the base deal has been far less stormy, however. Many people say they are tired of both the government’s policies and the opposition’s behavior. Among older Armenians, who spent most of their lives under Soviet rule, opinions are divided.

Seventy-five-year-old pensioner Albert Ghazarian expressed interest in how events will develop, but does not approve of doubling the length of Russia’s lease on its Gyumri base.

“Remaining under Russia’s thumb . . . Armenia will gain nothing,” said Ghazarian. “How long will our Big Brother, Russia, make decisions for us? Most likely I won’t see an independent Armenia before the end of my days.”

By contrast, retired 63-year-old engineer Laura Harutiunian believes prolonging the base lease will only benefit Armenia so long as war with Azerbaijan remains a possibility.

“It means security for Armenia. Having Azerbaijan and Turkey as neighbors, we really need a safeguard like Russia,” Harutiunian said. “I welcome this and feel more secure with the Russian presence here.”