Pros and cons of the U.S. training center in Tajikistan

How are Tajikistan's chattering classes reacting to the prospect of a U.S.-built antiterror training center on their territory? The newspaper Najot surveyed some political figures and analysts, and found that opinion was mixed, but none of the people they talked to seemed to have strong opinions on either side.

The pros: improving the skills of Tajikistan's military; furthering a multivector foreign policy by counterbalancing the weight of Russia, China and Iran; fighting the Taliban and other destabilizing Islamist elements; getting paid.

The cons: embroiling Tajikistan in great power rivalry; possibility of Manas-style corruption; won't help in the case of instability, anyway.

Najot's website seems to have been taken over by some Christian proselytizers (try it) but BBC Monitoring translated the article into English. Some excerpts:

It seems the Tajik leadership's decision on the construction of a military training centre by the USA is serious. This is happening at the time when relations with our strategic partner, Russia, are not that good. Despite this, considering itself to be free in choosing any policy, Tajikistan is pursuing a multi-vector policy. The USA has allocated 10m dollars to build a military training centre in the area of Qarotogh in Shahrinav District and is set to begin the construction of this military settlement. It is expected that this military training centre will be given to the National Guard in future. The two sides say that the training centre is designed for providing comprehensive training to Tajik soldiers and taking emergency measures to ensure peace and stability in the region, that is to say, to prevent and be ready for an unexpected attack. The question is: What is the long-term goal of building such training centre? Will not it lead to the exacerbation of the situation in Central Asia?

Fattoh Umarov, employee of the Strategic Research Centre under the president of Tajikistan: "As is known, only Tajik soldiers will be trained in modern methods of fighting at the US training centre, and representative of the US Department of Defence or other military agencies will not participate in training courses. Tajik military servicemen will learn methods of preventing modern threats at the centre...

The setting up of training centres will not create any problems. The problem is in the attitude of political circles to it. If we want to cite the experience of Kyrgyzstan as an example here, unfortunately, political forces there have used military centres as a means to seize power. If a political party sets a goal of using this issue in its political programme as in this or that country in order to gain power, it will, of course, may lead to unrest in society. However, as far as Tajikistan concerned, we can say that we have an experience of military cooperation with different states, including Russia, China and Iran, and that is why there is no such a threat here....

Akosha Kabiri, head of the Islamic Rebirth Party's organizational and control department, said: "This is causing concern in some states which have interests in Tajikistan. They do not like such plans. This is because they know that another great power has a role in the setting up of the training centre. When the training centre is built, there will be a need for military equipment. This will lead to a rivalry on the weapons market and such rivalry and such training centres may create problems for states like Tajikistan...

"The state may benefit if the training centres are given to Tajik servicemen. If the training centre is not given to Tajikistan, it may pose a threat to Tajikistan's independence and policy. Did the previous Kyrgyz leadership benefit from the US military centre in Manas? Was the Russian 201st Division able to ensure peace which the country needed during the years of unrest [the civil war of 1992-97]? The nation and state will benefit if the training centres are fully controlled by this state and are used by its servicemen. Otherwise, they will always create problems."

Expert Rahmatulloh Valiyev said: "I think the setting up of military centres by great powers in small or poor countries may have two goals. First, poor states do this in order to raise funds from military centres in order to recover their economies. Most of such states do this. Tajikistan will also have to do this. Everybody is aware of the economic situation in the country. I think Tajikistan, specifically its leadership, needs this training centre.

"Another aspect of the issue is that there is a geopolitical policy, big politics. Neighbouring Afghanistan is in a dire situation. Tajikistan cannot withdraw from the fight against the Taleban. If it withdraws, it may have negative consequences. This is because the Tajik leadership was one of the first to join the antiterrorist coalition. Tajikistan must make every effort to use this project for its own benefit - it does not matter whether it is financial or geopolitical benefit."