There is little about Kyrgyzstan’s capital Bishkek that evokes images of Istanbul. But recent maneuverings concerning the potential establishment of a foreign military facility in southern Kyrgyzstan can only be described as Byzantine.
According to press reports coming out of Moscow, Russian and Kyrgyz officials on September 13 appeared to make progress toward an agreement to open a Russian military facility in Osh. But did they?
Media outlets reported that Kyrgyz Defense Minister Abibilla Kudaiberdiev and his Russian counterpart, Anatoly Serdyukov, expressed interest in concluding a comprehensive military pact that would cover the operations of five existing Russian military installations, including the Kant airbase, in Kyrgyzstan. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive]. The potentially new facility in Osh would also fall under such an agreement. Kyrgyz and Russian officials are due to meet September 20 to continue their discussions. Technically, the Kant base operates under the auspices of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Payment for leasing rights would apparently come in the form of Russian arms supplies to Bishkek. Murat Ashirbekov, a spokesman for the Kyrgyz Ministry of Defense, told EurasiaNet.org; “The question about delivering arms for rent is being worked out.” At the same time, Ashirbekov remained circumspect about where the talks stand, saying that he had no information to add to the “talk” in the Russian media.
“Other issues and maybe this one [the potential Osh facility] will be discussed on September 20, when the Russian delegation under the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Russia, Valeriy Gerasimov, arrives,” Ashirbekov said on September 15.
It remains unclear if the arms in lieu of rent was a Russian or Kyrgyz proposal. Ajdar Kurtov of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS) in Moscow expressed doubt that Kyrgyz provisional leaders would seek cheap, probably second-hand, weapons from Russia when it could get cash instead.
“Russia has different types of arms, some are used and not very expensive and some are hi-tech and very expensive. Kyrgyzstan doesn’t need that much weaponry, there is no necessity for it,” Kurtov said. “Or if it is needed, [Bishkek] could take the rent in money and buy weapons from some other, cheaper CIS country.”
“I don’t see much logic in the actions of the Kyrgyz government because it needs money to close a lot of holes they have [in the budget] now. I just don’t see such a dramatic need for weapons,” he added.
Paul Quinn-Judge, Central Asia Project Director for the International Crisis Group, said the arms-not-cash approach was curious given that Kyrgyzstan is still waiting on military technical assistance from the CSTO. The Moscow-dominated security grouping pledged to donate vehicles and advice after refusing to deploy a military security force amid the height of the June violence in southern Kyrgyzstan. As yet, the promised assistance has not arrived. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive].
Elmira Nogoibaeva, director of Polis Asia, a research center in Bishkek, expressed concern that an arms-for-basing rights deal could adversely impact Kyrgyzstan’s sovereignty. “Moscow is ever more involved in the economic and political projects of Kyrgyzstan,” she said. “A lot of political leaders [in Kyrgyzstan] enjoy huge support from Russia, but when they gain power, Moscow can then enjoy influence through them.” Kyrgyzstan is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on October 10.
Numerous reports in the past 15 months about the impeding construction of a foreign military base in southern Kyrgyzstan have proven premature. Russia in July of 2009 revealed its intention to open a base in southern Kyrgyzstan, but those efforts hit a snag, in part because Uzbekistan put up steadfast opposition to the plan. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive].
Then, the United States and Kyrgyzstan appeared to strike a deal for the construction of an anti-terrorist training center near Osh. But that deal abruptly fell through after the US Defense Department began soliciting interest from military contractors to build the facility. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive].
Now the on-again, off-again Russian base idea seems to be back on. But experts in Bishkek are reluctant to call it a done deal.
Deirdre Tynan is a Bishkek-based reporter specializing in Central Asian affairs.
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