The Senate confirmation process for the Obama administration’s nominee as US envoy to Azerbaijan appears stuck in neutral. Experts believe that the confirmation has become entangled in partisan politics.
The ambassadorial post in Azerbaijan, a key strategic partner for Washington, has been vacant for the past 15 months. In late May, the White House nominated to the post Matthew Bryza, a seasoned South Caucasus diplomatic hand who was widely believed to be favored by the Azerbaijani government.
But those contacts – via energy and mediation of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute – proved to play against Bryza’s confirmation. US-based Armenian diaspora groups have lobbied actively against his appointment, pushing several senators to question whether his close ties to the Azerbaijani government might cloud influence his diplomatic behavior. [For details, see the EurasiaNet.org archive].
Discussions in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee are expected to continue on September 21.
Long-time Caucasus analyst Thomas de Waal, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC, believes that Bryza’s confirmation is being held “hostage to the November Senate elections and to three Senators with strong Armenian connections – Barbara Boxer (California), Harry Reid (Nevada) and Robert Menendez (New Jesey).” All three are Democrats who have been outspoken supporters for recognition of Ottoman Turkey’s 1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians as genocide. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive].
“But it is my feeling that after November, Bryza will be confirmed,” de Waal continued in an email interview with EurasiaNet.org. “The absence of an ambassador in Baku is becoming too much of an irritation and hurting US interests in the region.”
Aside from its long history of cooperation with US energy companies, Azerbaijan also serves as a forwarding point for shipments of non-military supplies to Afghanistan. [For background see EurasiaNet’s archive].
Of late, criticism of Washington’s choice for ambassador has started coming from Baku. On August 6, the Yeni Azerbaijan daily, the official outlet of President Ilham Aliyev’s Yeni Azerbaijani Party, published an article that criticized the “show organized in the Senate,” a reference to Bryza’s confirmation process, describing it as an attempt to put pressure on Azerbaijan.
“The delay of such a minor issue by the United States and the attempt to make a show out of a simple appointment is not something positive,” the article stated.
The story also targeted Bryza himself. “Our nation was not happy with Bryza’s activity, either as an assistant to the Secretary of State or as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group [which mediates talks between Baku and Yerevan over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region],” the commentary said. “On the contrary, in many cases his behavior and statements created serious discontent.” [For details, see the EurasiaNet.org archive.]
The newspaper commentary added that it makes “no big difference for Azerbaijan if a Bryza or a John or a Michael is appointed ambassador.”
Officials in Baku have so far avoided any public criticism of Bryza. Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov has said several times that it is up to Washington to decide whom to appoint ambassador to Baku, and when to send an envoy.
A representative of President Ilham Aliyev’s administration, speaking on condition of anonymity, told EurasiaNet.org that the Yeni Azerbaijan article indeed reflects growing government irritation over Bryza’s prolonged confirmation process. “It is not a matter of Bryza’s personality. It is just not good for bilateral relations that the United States does not have an ambassador to Baku for so long,” the source said.
Terming the allegations against Bryza “false,” the source stressed that the administration is not happy that the Armenian Diaspora appears to have enough power in the US Senate to delay sending an ambassador to Baku.
One Baku-based political analyst, Elhan Shahinoglu, believes that the Azerbaijani government now has its doubts that the Senate will confirm Bryza. “They think that the White House could run another candidate,” said Shahinoglu, who runs the Atlas think-tank. “Why should Baku take the risk and later be accused of lobbying for Bryza?”
By contrast, de Waal believes that the Azerbaijani establishment wants to see Bryza confirmed. “Firstly because having a US ambassador is better than not having one and also because he is a man they know and can do business with,” he said.
Washington-based Azerbaijani journalist Alakbar Raufoglu, who has been following the Senate confirmation process closely, believes that Azerbaijan’s earlier attempts to lobby for Bryza’s confirmation could have damaged his prospects.
In late August, The Washington Examiner, a local paper, published an op-ed by former Senator Conrad Burns (a Montana Republican) in support of Bryza. Once the paper learned from an Armenian Diaspora group that Burns advises a company founded by a senior advisor to a firm that has been linked to President Aliyev’s family, it attacked Burns for allegedly misleading editors and denounced Bryza’s nomination.
“This fact again shows that as long as the Azerbaijani government appears in Bryza’s background, instead of helping him, they harm him,” commented Raufoglu.
Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent based in Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society Institute-Azerbaijan.
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