Foreign Policy has a good piece on Iran's increasingly active diplomacy in the South Caucasus, and argues that one of Tehran's chief goals is to prevent the U.S. from establishing a military base on Iran's northern border (given that the U.S. already has bases to Iran's east, west and south):
Iran's primary motivation, Blank said, is to keep other countries, particularly the United States, from getting too chummy on its northern border. For Iran, which borders Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan -- all wobbly nations with a significant U.S. military presence -- a U.S. military base in the South Caucasus would be a disaster. Iran is calculating that the way to prevent that from happening is through strengthened alliances -- or at least mitigated ill-will -- with Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. "The message they keep repeating is: We are friends, we are economic partners, but if you allow a U.S. base on your soil, very bad things will happen to you," says a Georgian executive who spoke anonymously in order not to compromise his relationship with Iranian officials. "They are friendly, but the message is clear."
I'm not sure about this: the reasons the U.S. couldn't/wouldn't attack Iran have little to do with physical distance from Iran. It seems possible that Tehran may simply see that a stable, prosperous and friendly region directly to its north would be helpful, regardless of what the U.S. may or may not be doing.
Still, Iran is, of course, taking some shots at the U.S.:
With Russo-Georgian relations in tatters, Iran's ambassador to Georgia, Majid Saber, has worked hard to style Tehran as Tbilisi's only reliable friend and ally. "No U.S. help was there when you needed it most," Saber told reporters in Tbilisi in May, citing the George W. Bush administration's unwillingness to defend Georgia militarily during the 2008 Russo-Georgian war. "Real friendship is demonstrated in hard times."
An obvious rejoinder, of course, would be: "And where exactly was Iran's friendship during those hard times?" As unlikely as it was that U.S. troops would come to defend Georgia against Russia, it's even more unfathomable that Iranian troops would.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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