Several Central Asia experts gathered yesterday evening at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute in Washington for an event called “Update on Central Asia: Security, Stability, and U.S. Policy.” Some of the security-related highlights:
-- the floods in Pakistan have disrupted supplies for international forces in Afghanistan, forcing the alliance there to rely more heavily on the Northern Distribution Network (Pierre Morel, EU special representative for Central Asia);
-- the reforms that Russia is currently implementing in their military are in part directed toward moving Russia away from global power projection toward regional power projection. Russia was physically unable to intervene in Kyrgyzstan this summer, a Russian official said privately, because it didn't have the lift capability. By 2020 or so, it should have that capability and will be able to be much more militarily assertive in its near abroad. (Ariel Cohen, Heritage Foundation)
-- while a lot of the new political parties in Kyrgyzstan are campaigning on nationalist or pro-Russia platforms, and promising to evict the U.S. from the Manas air base, the rent money Washington pays for that base is so important to Kyrgyzstan's meager budget that the base will likely be safe. (Johan Engvall, visiting researcher at CACI)
-- Russian forces of the 201st Division in Tajikistan are involved in the drug trade from Afghanistan, using military aviation to transport drugs. (Cohen)
Plenty of food for thought there.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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