Ever since the U.S. started using the Northern Distribution Network to ship military cargo to Afghanistan through Central Asia rather than Pakistan, we've speculated on whether the NDN would be subject to attacks by Taliban-aligned groups. Avoiding the regular convoy attacks in Pakistan was, after all, the reason the NDN was created, so it would stand to reason that the same people interested in attacking convoys in Pakistan would think it was a good idea to do so on the NDN.
And according to the German general in charge of NATO operations in nine northern Afghan provinces, that's starting to happen. Violence is surging in northern Afghanistan, and he says it's because of the NDN:
"It's clear that the insurgents concentrate their efforts on those areas where they can hope to reach a significant impact," explained Maj. Gen. Hans-Werner Fritz, the German commander of 11,000 coalition troops across Afghanistan's nine northern provinces. "The northern part could become the game-changer for all of Afghanistan."
Baghlan is of strategic importance, Gen. Fritz added, because most supplies from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan pass through, including most of the coalition's fuel. The power line from Uzbekistan, the main source of Kabul's electricity, also runs through here.
There are surely many reasons that violence in northern Afghanistan is increasing, but assume this is one. Does that mean that violence from Afghanistan could then spill over further up the NDN, into Central Asia? Seems unlikely. To say that Uzbekistan's government has a handle on its security situation would be an understatement. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Russia would seem to be also difficult terrain for Islamist terrorists. So for better or worse, the U.S. and NATO will likely be fighting new front this just in Afghanistan.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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