Five leaders from the Caspian littoral states, which include Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan, met in Baku for the third Caspian Summit November 18-20. Once again, they discussed a draft agreement on the legal regime to be used to divide the Caspian's rich natural resources, but failed to resolve a fundamental disagreement about the principle of division. Iran wants the five states to divide up the waters equally because it has the least amount of territory in the Caspian; Turkmenistan and other powers want to divide the sea up according to territorial boundaries. Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan also failed once again to resolve their long-standing dispute about the demarcation of their sea border. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov proposed agreements on maritime biological resources and security on the Caspian, and the five states signed an agreement on security cooperation, but the summit did not appear to lead to greater security, EurasiaNet noted.
In a blunt statement clearly aimed at the European Union and United States, President Dmitry Medvedev said, “If at any moment we relax in our mutual cooperation, there is no doubt that other states will want to interfere with our concerns — states that lack a know-how of or a relationship with the Caspian but whose interest stems from economic interests and political goals.” Kazakhstan has recently beefed up maritime security with a purchase of U.S. helicopters and has been working on expanding its naval ships; Iran will expand its naval presence with two missile boats now in production; and Turkmenistan has plans for creation of a navy and a naval base, which means that the Caspian appears to be militarizing despite hopes of making it a "sea of peace."
As EurasiaNet's blog, The Bug Pit, noted this week, in an article ominously titled "War for Caspian Sea Inevitable," Pravda envisions a worst-case scenario implying there is "no peaceful solution" to the various Caspian disputes and the Russian navy "will play an important role" to deter the "destructive influence of the West, USA, first and foremost.”
The failure to reach an agreement about legal or demarcations issues in Baku didn't stop First Deputy Prime Minister Baymurad Khodzhamukhamedov from announcing later in Ashgabat at an oil and gas conference that Caspian neighbors supported Ashgabat's plan to lay a pipeline across the Caspian to reach Azerbaijan and outlets to Western markets, Central Asia Newswire reported. Russia, however is not happy with the Western-backed Nabucco pipeline which deliberately circumvents energy routes dominated by the Kremlin.
More than 160 foreign companies turned out for the 15th annual Oil and Gas Turkmenistan conference in Ashgabat, less than in previous years, but still representing major energy companies including the Chinese National Petroleum Company, Petronas, Dragon Oil, Wintershall, Bentec, Gazprom, TMK, Stroitransgas, Tatneft, Integra, Komatsu Ltd. Technip, RWE, BP, OMV, Chevron, Total, and others. The most important announcement was said to come from First Deputy Prime Minister Khodzhamukhamedov, who was reported by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti as saying that his country is ready to provide some 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the Nabucco project. He said the East-West pipeline being built now by Turkmen state companies in Turkmenistan will be able to link up to Nabucco.
The Turkmen deputy prime minister’s remarks were interpreted in a somewhat different way by other news outlets, including the Central Asia Newswire, which put his quote in context: after serving its main customers of China, Iran, and Russia, Turkmenistan would have 40 bcm available that could, in principle, go to new markets, including Nabucco. The state news media of Turkmenistan did not cover any of Khodzhamukhamedov's remarks at the conference or anything about Nabucco. President Berdymukhamedov, in his address to the conference, made no mention at all of Nabucco, but only noted China and Iran, and then spoke of the potential of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. The negotiations with Turkmenistan in the last year have been rocky as at times, as RWE, among the members of the Nabucco consortium active in Turkmenistan, seemed to get out ahead of itself in announcing Ashgabat's participation in Nabucco -- and then suffered a reprimand from the Turkmen government. Later, aides to the Turkmen leader said he was growing more interested in Nabucco, but the actual commitment has not yet been made, and there is still the obstruction of the disputed border with Azerbaijan.
Ilham Shaban, president of the Baku-based Center of Oil Research said that Russia and Iran would both continue to block any Caspian agreement. "Russia's aim is to hinder the realization of any pipeline joining the eastern and western sides of the Caspian. Iran is trying to exaggerate the Caspian status issue and turn it into an object of political bargaining through which it could gain something from the West," he told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. He said Iran could demand an easing of international sanctions in exchange for agreeing to a trans-Caspian pipeline.
This week, Turkmenistan celebrated the Muslim holiday known locally as Gurban Bayram, or in the Arab world as Eid al-Adha. A EurasiaNet photo essay of Turkmens celebrating the holiday shows the devout at prayer in the Ottoman-style Ertogul Gazi mosque in central Ashgabat, known as the “Turkish Mosque,” because it was funded and opened by the Turks in 1996. Roughly 3,000 men turned up for Friday prayers on November 19. At the Ruhy Mosque, where photographing was prohibited, EurasiaNet found that the sayings from Ruhnama, the cult book initiated by past dictator Saparmurat Niyazov, are still inscribed on the mosque walls, which angered Muslims who believe only the Koran’s verses should be displayed.
Forum 18 News Service has published a survey of religious freedom in Turkmenistan, finding that little has changed under President Berdymukhamedov, despite expectations for reform. Heavy state control is exercised over religious leaders and communities; racial discrimination occurs particularly against Uzbeks with the state promotion of a homogeneous culture; there are severe restrictions on religious education and sharing beliefs, including banning women from studying academic theology in the country. There is a ban on unregistered religious activity, with great hardships involved for those who try to legalize a religious community. There are state restrictions on establishing places of worship, even for registered groups; secret police informers are recruited from congregations. Those who discuss human rights violations suffer state reprisals. The government maintains a blacklist for entry and exit from the country and other restrictions on freedom of movement; there is also censorship of religious literature and other material. The past year has seen increasing numbers of prisoners of conscience, with one prisoner ordered to be subjected to abusive medical treatment; and the use of previous "offences" to harass those the authorities dislike.
"It appears that government promises of ’reform‘ are for foreign consumption only, without any intent to end human rights violations against Turkmenistan's people," says Forum 18. Even so, the U.S. State Department in its annual report titled “International Religious Freedom,” released November 17, found some “small improvements”. The Catholic Church in Ashgabat and two Muslim religious organizations were registered, and a few foreign religious leaders were allowed to visit their coreligionists, although several religious groups were unable to register, said the State Department.
Catherine A. Fitzpatrick compiles the Turkmenistan weekly roundup for EurasiaNet. She is also editor of EurasiaNet's Sifting the Karakum blog. To subscribe to the weekly email with a digest of international and regional press, write [email protected]
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