WikiLeaks Revelations: Turkmen Factories -- and China -- May Help with NDN
Two cables published by Wikileaks reveal how the U.S. may be shopping around for regional businesses that could possibly assist in providing supplies to troops in Afghanistan via the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) -- and a surprising Chinese offer to consider helping the NDN and cooperate with the U.S. to develop Turkmenistan's considerable gas deposits.
On the Wikileaks site under "Ashgabat", another new cable was published yesterday describing a source, referred to only as "Poloff," evidently a U.S. official, who reported his visit to two Turkmen factories. From this we learn what has hitherto apparently been a state secret: "Licorice root grows wild on the banks of the Amu Darya River." A press to extract the plant's juice built in 1906 by a U.S. company is still in operation but has been modernized by the Chinese.
Another plant that makes machine parts still has Soviet-era machinery and is evidently little in use currently, but may make a promising investment for a foreigner, says the cable writer. Most importantly, the Turkmen factory director proposes to build trailers for offices and housing in neighboring Afghanistan. "We'll make whatever you need," is the sub-title of that section of the cable.
The licorice cable or "A Tale of Two Factories" as it is formally titled shows that the U.S. is actively trying to figure out how to help Turkmenistan's industry, with its aging Soviet infrastructure, upgrade to compete on the world market. This likely dovetails with U.S. plans for the NDN. U.S. officials have held a number of meetings in Tashkent with Central Asian business people, usually close to their governments, touting the profits to be made from the NDN -- and the Turkmen factory director knew exactly the pitch to make.
While at least 7 cables have been published from Ashgabat, including the recent revelation that the Russian company Itera gave the Turkmen leader a yacht worth 60 million euro -- not a single one has appeared yet from Tashkent. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is visiting Tashkent today.
A cable filed June 9 from Astana by Ambassador Richard Hoagland describing a meeting between a U.S. diplomat and the Chinese assistant foreign minister, Ambassador Cheng Guoping, surprisingly shows a willingness of the Chinese official to entertain the possibility of helping the U.S. with the NDN and cooperating on development of Turkmenistan's gas. After first flattering President Obama and calling his Cairo speech a "milestone for the use of smart power," he provides some advice: the Taliban is the real enemy of the U.S. and it should first defeat the Taliban if it hopes to prevail against terrorism in Iraq.
In an expression of admiration for a U.S. policy, the Chinese ambassador says,
“You have enlisted the help of all governments in the region to assist with the rebuilding of Afghanistan, saying that to do so is to play a part in the war against terrorism. No one is able to say openly that they do not want to combat terrorism, so you have made it very difficult to refuse to help.” In particular, Guoping said that the Northern Distribution Network to transport non-lethal supplies to U.S. troops in Afghanistan has enabled many countries to participate in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. He said that the Chinese government is aware of the U.S. government’s request to transit non-lethal supplies via China and said “we are actively researching this suggestion. In essence, it would mean that the People’s Republic of China would be supporting a NATO military operation, which would be an interesting development.” Guoping confided that China’s MFA and its Ministry of Defense have different opinions on the subject, although he said he expected a decision soon. “My own personal opinion,” he said, “is that we will do the right thing and cooperate with NATO and the U.S. government in Afghanistan.” Guoping said this would be an appropriate issue to raise in the context of the President’s visit to Beijing in July.
The Chinese ambassador seems to indicate that his country's help with NDN -- which has been discussed with some circumspection by the U.S. as EurasiaNet has reported but never confirmed publicly by China (and may now be off the table after Wikileaks) -- is contingent on getting the U.S. to recognize that Central Asia must be recognized as Russia's sphere of influence at a time when Russia is experience "severe difficulty" now because of the global economic downturn:
Guoping said that Russia does not want or need any foreign policy problems right now; “they need to focus on their domestic, economic affairs.” Guoping also said that Russia would like more support from the United States for its insistence on a privileged sphere of influence in Central Asia, in exchange for greater cooperation in Afghanistan. “Russia is convinced that they must dominate Central Asia and the Caucasus. They believe they have vital, strategic, historical interests in the region,” Guoping said. When pressed by the Ambassador to express his own opinion, Guoping said, “I personally do not agree that Russia should be granted a special sphere of influence in the region, but that is their view.”
There's also a candid admission about China's role in breaking Russia's monopoly on energy routes:
Turning to a discussion of energy resources and energy security in Central Asia, Guoping said that Russia owns and controls most of Central Asia’s pipelines, “but it cannot prevent the ultimate diversification of export routes.” He said that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are close to Russia, but they nevertheless understand that they must seek and develop alternatives. He predicted that they will soon “break the Russian monopoly” on the export of hydrocarbons from the region and said the oil and gas pipelines to China now under construction will be “very important” in that regard.
Ambassador Guoping also confirmed what has previously been indicated by U.S. energy officials about willingness to cooperate with China in developing Turkmenistan's hydrocarbon:
Guoping said China sees “great potential for an energy partnership with U.S. companies in Central Asia,” including the development of onshore resources in Turkmenistan. He said that the Chinese MFA is very interested in pursuing these opportunities and suggested that this would be worth including in the China-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue. “This is very reasonable,” he said, adding, “Our government would actively support such a proposal.” The Ambassador noted that Chevron is already working with Chinese companies in western China.
Chevron recently opened an office in Ashgabat and top executives have met with President Berdymukhamedov, who promised Chevron an opportunity to bid on a Caspian Sea shelf sector back in June. Nothing public has been said since then, but Chevron is expected to reach an agreement with Turkmenistan on offshore exploration.
Guoping also claimed to have heard that the U.S. was prepared to pay an additional $50 million a year to the government of Kyrgyzstan to keep the base in Manas open, and credited the U.S. with "important progress" on Uzbekistan. "We ourselves have noticed a change in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy over the last year, especially toward Russia,” he said.
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