Astana regularly touts Moscow as its chief foreign policy ally, and for ordinary Russians the feeling appears to be mutual. Not only do Russians prize Kazakhstan as their most reliable partner in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); they also can’t get enough of its Leader of the Nation, Nursultan Nazarbayev.
Kazakhstan topped a recent poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, with 37 percent of the 1,600 Russians polled naming the giant Central Asian country as their most reliable CIS partner on the international stage. The figure is up from 31 percent last year.
Nazarbayev topped the poll of CIS leaders as well, with 32 percent describing him as the one they trusted most (Russia and its leaders were not included in the polling questions). The largest number of Russians (34 percent) also named Kazakhstan as the most stable and successful country among Moscow’s CIS partners.
Kazakhstan’s standing in the minds of Russians has been helped by the chill in relations between Moscow and Minsk. Belarus was last year’s favored partner among ordinary Russians, with 43 percent naming “Europe’s last dictatorship” as their country’s most reliable partner. That’s plunged to 23 percent this year, second place behind Kazakhstan, while Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s rating as most trusted CIS president has dropped from first in 2009 at 33 percent to third in 2010 at 16 percent.
After a year of diplomatic spats with Moscow, Lukashenka has been overtaken by both Nazarbayev and Ukraine’s Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych’s ranking reflects Russian relief at his presidential win this year after a period of difficult relations under his predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko (trusted by only 3 percent of Russians last year).
The other Central Asian states don’t fare too well in the poll. Just 3 percent of Russians name Uzbekistan Moscow’s most reliable CIS partner, ahead of Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan at 2 percent each. Disappointingly for Dushanbe, Tajikistan languishes at the bottom, at 1 percent, tying with Georgia, Russia’s bête noire.
The other four Central Asian leaders aren’t trusted by many Russians, either: Tajikistan’s Emomali Rakhmon is at the bottom again (with Georgia’s Mikheil Saakashvili), trusted by 1 percent. The other three – Uzbekistan’s Islam Karimov, Kyrgyzstan’s Roza Otunbayeva, and Turkmenistan’s Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov – come in just ahead at 2 percent each.
Tajikistan also finishes last in the “stable and successful” ranking, at 1 percent, putting it in the ignominious position of falling below strife-ridden Kyrgyzstan (second from last at 2 percent). Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan both fared poorly in this category as well, at 3 percent and 5 percent, respectively.
Kazakhstan’s leading position in the stability and success stakes comes as no surprise, but the poll raises another question about its neighbors: How do even a few Russians see grounds to characterize these politically failing states with their basket-case economies as “stable and successful?”
Joanna Lillis is a journalist based in Almaty and author of Dark Shadows: Inside the Secret World of Kazakhstan.
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