Russia is looking to expand its military presence in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but leaders of those countries are trying to get more money for the privilege, reports the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
In particular, Russia wants to "modernize" its forces in Tajikistan and place two aviation units, one consisting of Su-25 fighter jets and the other of Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters, at the Ayni airfield "with the participation of India." (Those two units are currently based at the 201st base, also in Tajikistan.) For that, Tajikistan's president Emomali Rakhmon is asking for $125 million a year -- or its equivalent in military aid. Tajikistan's total annual military budget, the paper drily notes, is currently about $84 million.
In Kyrgyzstan, Russia wants to establish a training base. But the Kyrgyz side apparently wants the base to be located at Kyzyl-Kiya, near Osh, which the Russians aren't interested in. thinking the area too unstable. And Bishkek is demanding $20 million a year for the use of all the facilities that Russia has in Kyrgyzstan (Russia also maintains an air base and a couple of smaller facilities), up from the $4.5 million it pays now.
How much of this is true? Hard to say. Nezavisimaya Gazeta is a relatively reliable newspaper, so we ought to give it more credence than the state agencies which lately have been less reliable on these issues. Still, it refers to a couple Wikileaked cables that I don't see having been published, and which don't really pass the smell test, saying the Americans were maneuvering to get Foreign Minister Khamrokhon Zarifi to succeed Rakhmon and quoting U.S. ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Tatiana Gfoeller as crowing about the Russians' "defeat" on Manas (after Russia tried, and failed, to get Kyrgyzstan to kick the Americans out in 2009) and saying it meant Russia "was soon leaving" the country.
Still, when the story is quoting Russian officials it ought to be somewhat more reliable, at least as an expression of what Russia wants to achieve. So will we be seeing a move to Ayni by the Russians? And how much are they going to pay for it?
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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