A Eurasianet partner post from <a href="http://www.stratfor.com/">Stratfor</a>
Kyrgyz State National Security Committee Chairman Keneshbek Duishebayev said Jan. 17 that a terrorist group that had been recently detained by authorities in Kyrgyzstan had planned on attacking a number of strategic targets, including diplomatic missions in Bishkek, police headquarters and the United States’ Manas air base. The security chief added that members of this terrorist group, known as Jaysh al-Mahdi, had also confessed to being responsible for previous attacks, such as the bombing at the Sports Palace in Bishkek in November. These statements coincide with a meeting between Kyrgyz Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev and a top U.S. security official, suggesting that the two seemingly unrelated events that could in fact be connected.
As STRATFOR has mentioned previously, it is in the interests of the Kyrgyz authorities to exaggerate , and perhaps even fabricate, the threat of terrorism in the country. While violence has gone down considerably in Kyrgyzstan since the April revolution that ousted former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and the June ethnic violence between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in the southern regions of Osh and Jalal-Abad, the country has been in a continued state of instability. Low-level protests continue almost daily, and the country’s transition from a presidential to a parliamentary republic under President Roza Otunbayeva has been far from smooth. The Kyrgyz government and security forces, therefore, have played up the threat of terrorism and extremism in order to justify security crackdowns and exert control over the restless country.
But the true nature of violence in Kyrgyzstan is more likely linked to the simmering ethnic tensions than transnational terrorist activity. For example, according to STRATFOR sources, a shootout and grenade attack in Osh in November was in response to Uzbek neighborhoods’ being targeted by security forces in retribution for the June interethnic violence. There are a number of reasons to doubt the terrorism charges, such as the fact that the bombing of the Sports Palace, which authorities blamed on Jaysh al-Mahdi, occurred during trials over the June unrest at the complex; it is thus more likely the bombing was targeting those trials and was not conducted by transnational terrorists. Also, claims by security officials that the detained terrorist group would deploy a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device first at a police station and then at the Manas air base is, to say the least, an odd and unusual tactic for such a group to employ.
The timing of these statements by the Kyrgyz national security head is perhaps most significant, as it coincided with a security meeting between Atambayev and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Susan Elliott. During the meeting, the two sides discussed means of strengthening the Kyrgyzstan Border Service in order to counter terrorist groups and radical religious movements, and the United States offered to hold consultations on these issues as soon as March or April. Playing up this threat could be an opportunity for the new government in Kyrgyzstan to extract concessions — whether they be economic, political or for security training — out of the United States. The United States relies on Kyrgyzstan and the lease of the Manas air base for its war effort in Afghanistan, and is currently undergoing complex negotiations with Kyrgyz authorities over fuel tax issues.
Of course, in a country as unstable as Kyrgyzstan, the possibility of extremist and terrorist activity cannot be completely ruled out. But under the current circumstances, it is much more likely that the Kyrgyz government and security forces are manipulating the terrorist threat in order to justify their own crackdowns and to get outside support from countries like the United States, as well as Russia .
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