When Azerbaijan passed a law last year that would, for the first time, allow foreign military bases on its soil, the leading candidates seemed to be Russia, Turkey and the U.S. And even those seemed unlikely, given little obvious reason any of them would want a base in Azerbaijan.
But now, perhaps, a dark horse may be interested in setting up camp in Azerbaijan: Canada. Since 2001, Canada has maintained a forward logistics operation in Dubai, called Camp Mirage, for its forces in Afghanistan. But the Canadians were forced out of Camp Mirage late last year after refusing to submit to demands by the UAE government to give additional landing rights for UAE airlines in Canada. Canadian officials complained that "Canada was essentially being used as a pawn in heavy-handed blackmail."
So as a stopgap measure Canada is using temporary facilities in Germany and Cyprus. They have been scouting potential new bases, including possibly Ternez in Uzbekistan and Manas in Kyrgyzstan.
But one military analyst says that Canada should instead consider Baku as "the most suitable regional location for us to establish our next logistic staging area." His argument is largely a process of elimination, noting the precarious positions of Germany and the U.S. in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, respectively. By contrast:
Although not a member of NATO, Azerbaijan has troops in Afghanistan and has been a member of NATO’s Partnership for Peace program since 1994. While not entirely without corruption, this oil-rich former Soviet republic is politically stable and eager to increase trade and development with the West.
The piece notes that Canada doesn't even have an embassy in Azerbaijan, so some work remains to be done if this is to happen. And this is just the opinion of one analyst. But one way or another, it looks like Canada could be setting up shop somewhere in Eurasia soon.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.