Over the past couple of years Russia has announced a major overhaul of the vessels in its Black Sea Fleet, and secured long-term basing rights to keep the fleet in Sevastopol, on Ukraine's Crimean coast.
But one question has remained throughout this process: what's the point? The Black Sea is no longer a front line between the Soviets and NATO, and the security issues in the sea are very modest. The fleet was used, of course, in the Russia-Georgia war in 2008, but its role was hardly decisive.
Dmitry Gorenburg -- whose writings on Russian naval affairs are a must-read -- flags an analysis piece (in Russian) by a Russian writer, Mikhail Lukanin, who interprets all the recent Russian naval modernization plans to divine a Russian grand strategy.
Globally, the moves indicate a shift away from considering the U.S. as the enemy, and a greater orientation towards Asia. Gorenburg writes:
Based on its shipbuilding plans, Russia no longer considers the US an opponent. Instead of ships aimed at destroying US attack submarines and aircraft carriers, Russia plans to build smaller multipurpose ships such as frigates and corvettes.
Furthermore, ship building plans indicate that in the coming years, the Pacific Fleet will become the most important Russian fleet, taking over from the Northern Fleet. Its main mission will be to deter potential Chinese aggression against Russia. It could also be used in the event of a conflict with Japan over the Kuril Islands, though I can’t imagine that how that dispute could lead to an armed conflict. Because of the priority given to this fleet, the first of the newly purchased Mistral ships will go to the Pacific Fleet.
And for the Black Sea Fleet? The missions will be "controlling" Georgia, protecting pipelines and combating piracy. Lukanin:
Nevertheless, the Black Sea Fleet today performs two important functions of control over Georgia and protection of the South Stream pipeline. In addition, one of the "Mistrals" will be assigned to the Black Sea Fleet, which will be tasked with the fight against Somali pirates.
Is the Fleet necessary for Russia to control the Black Sea? Probably not. Pointing out that in the 2008 war, seven NATO ships entered the Black Sea, Lukanin notes: "According to experts, they could easily be destroyed by our ground-attack aircraft, as the ships were desperately close to our military bases."
Anyway, 18 ships seems a bit excessive for that limited mission set. My guess: it's just bureaucratic inertia from the days of the Cold War, the same reason the U.S. still has bases in Germany and Japan.
UPDATE: Gorenburg writes to alert me to a crucial omission: Lukanin included Georgia in his list of missions that the Black Sea Fleet will undertake. The post has been revised to reflect that correction.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.