A Eurasianet partner post from <a href="http://www.stratfor.com">Stratfor</a>
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has called for an early presidential election, moving the vote up from 2012. This follows a Kazakh Constitutional Court ruling — supported by Nazarbayev — opposing a referendum that would have extended Nazarbayev’s term to 2020 if passed. A date for the election has not yet been scheduled, though an adviser to Nazarbayev has said it could be held within three months.
Nazarbayev’s decision is based on the internal debate over Kazakhstan’s succession issue, as he is attempting to craft an orderly plan and manage the potential fallout of political infighting. The early election will be an important indicator of the status of Nazarbayev’s succession plan.
Nazarbayev has led Kazakhstan for more than 20 years, since before the fall of the Soviet Union. His advanced age (he is 70 years old) and rumors of his frail health have further contributed to the succession debate. The problem is that Nazarbayev has not publicly chosen a preferred candidate from the list of potential successors — ranging from members of the Kazakh security apparatus to energy sector figures to Nazarbayev’s daughter Darigha.
In this context, the proposal to extend Nazarbayev’s term to 2020 created much controversy. The plan was proposed by Nazarbayev loyalists, particularly a faction led by financial and legislative groups in the country’s capital, Astana. This faction wanted to counter the increasing momentum behind Timur Kulibayev, head of Kazakhstan’s powerful energy sector and Nazarbayev’s son-in-law. Of the candidates on the lengthy list of possible successors, Kulibayev would be the most logical choice in terms of his experience and connections. He is already in charge of the energy sector, is married into the family, and has been gaining ground in his attempts to take over the financial sector. He has long been waiting for Nazarbayev to step down.
But the referendum proposal did not have the effect the Nazarbayev loyalists wanted. The Kazakh public has received the proposal with mixed reviews and confusion. Nazarbayev remains extremely popular, but many were unhappy with the proposed change in democratic law to support Nazarbayev, who would have been the front-runner in elections anyway. The proposal also inspired much foreign and Western criticism, particularly from the United States, over a lack of democracy and transparency. The proposal also came amid increased tensions with foreign firms in Kazakhstan’s energy, mining and banking sectors over the government’s regulatory practices.
In order to combat anti-democratic allegations against Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev dismissed calls for the referendum and decided to hold an early election instead. This move is mostly political theater, however, as Nazarbayev knows he will win the election.
There could, however, be another piece to this puzzle. If Nazarbayev’s health is worse than official reports suggest, he could have already chosen his successor. If not, this is the time for Nazarbayev to clamp down on the competition, especially those that make the Kazakh president look bad domestically and internationally. Either way, watching Nazarbayev’s moves ahead of the early election will be key.
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